Agrivisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Tuesday, December 01, 2015
***** Corn futures ended 1-2 higher, soybeans 8 higher, with Chicago wheat 3-4 lower. ***** 

   # Brazilian weather talk and a weaker Dollar lifted soybeans, and corn, but did little to keep wheat from sinking. 
   # The inconsistent start to Brazil’s rainy season across Mato Grosso and states to the east is finally getting some attention.  The situation isn’t dire, but unless widespread rains start to come soon, the anxiousness about this year’s Brazilian crop will start to increase.  That area now accounts for 50% of their soybean crop and 70% of the 2nd crop corn.  Southern Brazil and Argentina continue to have relatively good growing conditions, although it is a little too wet in some locations.
   # The EPA announcement on renewable fuel standards had the most impact on soybean oil.  Although the new standards weren’t a huge shock, they do include larger numbers for biodiesel, a product that now comprises 25% of our domestic soyoil demand.
   # Argentine changes have faded somewhat, but are still part of the background, having a slightly positive bias for soybeans, and s slightly negative one for the wheat and corn.  But the bigger impact may be on future crops, not the one being planted/harvested.
   # There’s still talk about potential improvement in the corn export sector, with our FOB value under Brazil’s and Argentina’s.  Brazil’s Nov. exports were down markedly from Oct., building the case their campaign is starting to wind down.
   #   The USDA released the latest monthly reports on corn and soybean processing.  Not surprising, both were larger than September, a typical seasonal low point.  The most surprising feature was that no sorghum had been used yet in September, hinting more of the current grind might still be corn.  The Oct. soybean crush was 170 mln. bu.  Soymeal and soyoil stocks rose, but the extra day of processing and larger grind, they weren’t much of a surprise.
   # ABARE, the Australian USDA counterpart, cut their wheat forecast this week to 23.98 mmt. from 25.28 mmt. 
   # The Dollar slipped Tuesday, with new data suggesting manufacturing contracted slightly in Nov.  That, and Fed official comments undermined the certainty the Fed would raise rates at their December meeting. 

***** Live cattle ended $2.05-$1.45 higher, feeders $1.65-$2.32 higher, and lean hogs $1.52-$2.97 higher. ***** 

   # The pork complex led the rally with the trade talking about good demand building in pork.  But, wholesale prices slipped on the day even though the volume was good.  Cash hog prices were generally firmer across the Midwest.
   # Cattle futures followed the gains in the pork complex, but traders weren’t as optimistic about the plight of the cattle market.  Wholesale beef prices ended slightly lower on modest volume.  And cattle traded steady lower in the cash trade.