AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, December 01, 2015
***** Corn futures gaining 2 cents ahead of the break; soybeans up a nickel; Chicago wheat higher by 3 to 4. ​*****

   # Grains continue mostly higher overnight along with some support from a weaker dollar and positive overall commodity market sentiment.  
   # EPA decision to raise the 2016 ethanol use target from its May proposal lends support to corn prices.  Traders also think back to last week’s report that tallied record ethanol production and a very robust 105 million bushel grind.     
   # Rainfall is scheduled for Mato Grosso, Brazil this week.  The forecast, along with some moisture accumulated last week, gives an improved outlook for newly-planted soybeans in the region.         
   # News continues to circulate regarding the political intentions of president-elect Macri in Argentina.  Stories yesterday suggest that he will cut soybean export taxes by 5 percent once he takes office in December.  Taxes of 20 and 23 percent on corn and wheat could be eliminated completely.                 
   # March corn futures are making a positive technical move by trading above their 20-day moving average on Tuesday morning.  The contract has not settled above the mark for nearly two months.   
   # Soybean futures are displaying some newfound technical momentum after the bullish reversal made two Mondays ago.  The most-active January contract trades above its 50-day moving average but approaches overbought territory from a very near-run perspective.          
   # Monday’s Crop Progress report had the U.S. winter wheat crop rated 55 percent good or excellent compared to 53 a week ago and 58 a year ago.  The report indicated the sorghum harvest has been wrapped up while the cotton crop is 80 percent cut.       
   # U.S. equity index futures are higher overnight with some spillover support from European markets.  The European Central Bank is expected to roll out additional measures of monetary stimulus this week, despite some recently-improved economic indicators.            

***** Cattle futures look to hold support from last week’s low; hogs likely to face further liquidation at the open. *****   

   # Cattle futures are likely to stay pressured as long as they hold a premium to the cash market.  Plenty of uncertainty still exists overs the expected direction of cash prices.  Cash activity was surprisingly firmer late last week, but there’s a lack of defined bids and offers to look at so far this week.    
   # Hog futures are finding it hard to clear resistance from their 20-day moving averages.  Firmer wholesale prices fail to lend support on the fundamental side.