AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, December 03, 2015
***** Corn fractionally weaker; soybeans down 3 1/4 cents; Chicago wheat fractionally firmer ahead of the morning break. *****
   # Soybeans ease back overnight as some short-run technicals suggest overbought conditions while Chicago wheat attempts to rebound out of oversold territory.  Fresh news was limited as traders awaited weekly export sales. 
   # Export sales will be reported at 7:30 a.m. central.  Traders look for 20-40 million bushels of new corn sales, 30-45 million soybeans, and 10-20 million wheat.  
   # The dollar is higher overnight after an active trade on Wednesday that ultimately put pressure on the commodity space.  Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Yellen indicated that a December rate increase should be expected.  Many traders still believe that a U.S. rate bump is already well priced into the currency market.    
   # The National Weather Service forecasts a dry 6-10 days that will eventually give way to wetter than average weather during the back half of the 8-14 day outlook.  Temperatures in the first part of December are expected to run much warmer than normal.                       
   # A slight pick-up in producer corn sales is being reported ahead of the new tax year. Still, sales are likely to run below the 5-year average that shows about 9 percent of the year’s marketings made in December. The bulk of sales are usually made in January.      # Wheat deliveries were 299 lots overnight in Chicago, bringing the total to more than 4,500.  Open interest in the December contract fell to 669.  Wheat prices may have some rebound potential now that delivery pressure is waning.
   # There are estimations that Argentine farmers are holding back up to 800 million bushels of corn and 600 million bushels of soybeans that could be taken to market once their new president cuts export taxes.  President-elect Macri takes office on December 10th.     
   # The European Central Bank president will announce a decision on interest rates today.  The Bank is expected to cut the main deposit rate by another 10 basis points.  U.S. Fed Chair Yellen will speak again today.      

***** Cattle futures likely to start on the defensive before buyers step in to stabilize the market; hogs look to open steady/weaker. *****
   # Cattle futures couldn’t hold any of the previously-gained technical momentum and now looked poised for further weakness.  We will see if expanded trading limits will wash out some nervously-held longs early in the session.  
   # A firmer wholesale market is keeping some support under the hog market.  Packer margins are still strong and couple with improving demand to help chew through large supply numbers.