Agrivisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Friday, December 04, 2015
***** Corn futures ended 4-6 higher, soybeans 7-8 higher, with Chicago wheat 5-6 higher. *****
***** Agrivisor Analysts are on the road Monday.  We do not plan to update the advice files, but if something unexpected occurs, check the Closer Look page for a brief commentary and possible recommendations. *****

   # The news of the day was again centered in the economic arena.  Another 211,000 jobs were added to the labor market in November, along with the September and October numbers each being revised up 35,000.  The November number also eclipsed the 200,000 expected increase.  The number only reinforced expectations the Fed Reserve will raise rates as has long been expected at their December meeting.  Gains in hourly earnings were more tepid than last month, but are expected to pick up again in Dec. or Jan.
   # Economic news lifted the Dollar, equity, and financial markets to end the week, but the Dollar was still 1.7 index points off its Wednesday close.  Amid the end of week changes, the Cont. Commodity Index scored a reversal up for the week, 5.7 points higher than last week’s close, leading to the possibility it could be putting in a semi-annual and 3 year low.
   # Early Friday, the USDA reported 178,000 tons of soybeans had been sold to China, with another 249,000 tons sold to unknown destination, also possibly China.
   # Stats Canada reported their latest production forecasts.  The 27.6 mmt. wheat estimate was at the top of the range, and up 1.6 mmt. from October.  The canola crop was estimated at 17.2 mmt., above expectations, and nearly 3 mmt. up from the prior forecast.  Numbers for other crops were similar.
   # Safras & Mercado, a long time Brazilian analyst, forecast a 100.4 mmt. crop for this year, down 0.1 from their prior estimate. Area planted was thought to have grown 3.8% this year.  Planting is 79% complete.  They also forecast a 89.3 mmt. corn crop, using a 100.000 hectare increase in the planted area this year.  The estimate was 0.7 mmt. higher than their last forecast.
   # Soyoil rose again on the talk about the strength of El Nino, with southeastern Asia tending to dryness when an El Nino is occurring.  A USDA Ag. Attaché report forecasting steady output for Indonesia played a part as well.  That would break a string on increases stretching back to 1997-1998, the last El Nino.
   # The French Farm Ministry reported 5.22 mln. hectares were planted to winter wheat this year, an 80 year high.
   # Scattered showers are slated for the center/west area of Brazil into early next week, with better coverage possibly coming at the end of the period.  Temps will be close to normal, if not slightly below.  Southern states will see rain/thunderstorms, with early week turning drier again.  Temps will be cool, but turn warmer early next week.  Argentine weather will be much the same. 
   # Weather is thought to be good in the Great Plains for our new wheat crop as well as in the Black Sea region.  But weather is fading for now as a mover unless until there’s a possibility of winter kill.

***** Live cattle ended $0.22 lower to $0.30 higher, feeders $0.30-$0.65 lower, and lean hogs $0.27 higher to $0.22 lower. ***** 

   # Sluggish wholesale beef prices and soft hide/offal values are weighing on cash cattle prices, with the cash market dropping as much as $4 this week.  That remains a crop on futures because of their premium level.  Wholesale beef ended the day and week at lower prices.
   # Hog futures ended the day narrowly mixed, except for the expiring Dec. contract.  Cash hogs were slightly lower Friday.  Wholesale pork prices ended the day lower, but the week higher.