Agrivisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Tuesday, December 08, 2015
***** Corn futures ended ½-1 higher, soybeans 5-6 lower, with Chicago wheat steady-2 lower. ***** 

   # Weakness in the energy and equity markets remained a drag on grain prices in general.  Soybean prices were the weaker grain, with many traders simply standing aside ahead of tomorrow’s new USDA s/d numbers.
   # The trade is only looking for small changes in the ending stocks forecasts for corn, soybeans, and wheat.  There is some expectation the ethanol grind could be revised up a little with the new EPA standards.  But ideas of a possible downgrade of exports is expected to offset it.  Overall though the trade isn’t looking for changes with USDA analysts having better data for gauge demand with next month’s more complete survey data.
   # There was talk during the day that Argentine corn for April delivery was offered at a discount to the U.S.  World wheat prices continue to be a little lower than wheat offers out of the U.S. 
   # There continues to be expectations for an increase in producer sales in corn/soybeans in particular with producers needing to make sales to generate cash to pay bills.
   # China reported this year’s corn crop was 224.6 mmt., up 4% from last year.  Total grain output was pegged at 621 mmt., up 2.4% from last year. 
   # Weather worries eased for Brazil with some showers across the center/west area, although forecasts suggest a warmer, drier pattern will return for the next week.  Moisture conditions across the southern states and Argentina continue to be good, with some localized conditions a little too wet.  
   # Weather is thought to be good in the Great Plains for our new wheat crop as well as in the Black Sea region.  But weather is fading for now as a mover unless until there’s a possibility of winter kill.

***** Live cattle ended $0.07-$.040 lower, feeders $2.60-$1.45 lower, and lean hogs $0.85-$.90 higher. *****
   # Talk about potential improvement in beef demand lifted live cattle futures off the lows.  Wholesale prices were a bit stronger, but still haven’t offered indications retailers are buying beef more aggressively.  Cattle prices have traded steady/slightly lower in a modest early week trade.
   # Pork prices were lower, but the volume of wholesale trade remains strong.  Cash hog prices were a bit weaker, but continue to show signs of stability.