Agrivisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Wednesday, December 09, 2015
***** Corn futures ended fractionally changed, soybeans mostly unchanged, with Chicago wheat 7-8 higher. ***** 

   # The absence of any positive ingredients in the new USDA supply/demand numbers left the grain markets on the defensive.  The only substantive changes were a 25 mln. bu. increase in the corn grind because of the new EPA fuel standards, and a 50 mln. bu. decrease in the export forecast because of the slow pace of export sales.  The ending stocks forecast was raised 25 mln. bu. as a result to 1.785 bln. bu.
   # They also raised the soyoil demand forecast because of the new EPA fuel standards, but the basic soybean data was left unchanged, including the 465 mln. bu. ending stocks.  Wheat data was unchanged as well, leaving the ending stocks at 911 mln. bu.
   # The decline the Dollar was the other notable event of the day.  There’s been a bit of shift in attitude, with traders talking more about potential Dollar weakness in the wake of the expected Fed Reserve rate increase next week.  Part of the issue with the Dollar may be too many having become too optimistic of recent, especially with more analysts starting to believe a Fed rate increase may have been “fully baked into the market.” 
   # The decline in the Dollar has become especially supportive to wheat, with the Euro among the stronger currencies over the last week, helping the competitive position of U.S. wheat in the world market, especially against European wheat. 
   # There was a story out of China indicating the government may start releasing corn from govt. stockpiles early this year, as much as 4 months earlier than the traditional beginning of sales in April.  Details were scant as the details for starting corn sales from the govt. stockpiles earlier than normal had not been finalized.  Some of the early sales are expected to go to ethanol plants and other processors. 
   # Weather worries have abated for Brazil after the early week showers across the center/west area, although forecasts suggest a warmer, drier pattern will return for the next week.  Moisture conditions across the southern states and Argentina continue to be good, with some localized conditions a little too wet.  
   # Weather is thought to be good in the Great Plains for our new wheat crop as well as in the Black Sea region.  But weather is fading for now as a mover unless until there’s a possibility of winter kill.

***** Live cattle ended $2.40-$2.92 lower, feeders $3.22-$2.72 lower, and lean hogs $0.80-$.90 higher. ***** 

   # The trade attitude about beef demand turned decidedly negative today, with traders thinking pork/poultry demand will continue to drag wholesale beef prices lower.  Wholesale prices were lower today, but the volume of trade was better.  Cash cattle prices slipped lower with the weakness in wholesale beef and cattle futures.  Cash traded in the $115-$119 range.
   # Pork prices ended a little higher today on very good volume.  Numbers are keeping cash hog prices on the defensive, but large hog supplies are keeping hog prices slightly on the defensive.