AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, December 18, 2015
***** Corn futures unchanged at the break; soybeans up 3 cents; Chicago wheat fractionally lower.​ ******

   # Grains trade with a mixed to slightly firmer bias overnight.  Futures benefit from some technical momentum after Thursday’s intraday reversals.  Traders were attributing the strength to short covering, but open interest did increase by a touch in the previous session.          
   # After a bullish showing on the charts Thursday, March soybean futures will close out the week with a test of resistance from their 50-day moving average. March corn will look to hold support from the 20-day.  The December 7 high of $3.82 serves as resistance overhead.            
   # It remains a bit dry in the northeastern regions of Brazil.  Growers in the Mato Grosso and Tocantins states currently face a slight threat from hot temperatures and below normal rainfall.  Areas in the South are wet enough, receiving up to 10 inches over normal in the last 30 days.     
   # Buyers are for now shrugging off bearish news out of Argentina.  The country’s new president confirmed early in the week that export taxes would be eliminated for corn and wheat and cut 5 percent for soy.  Also negative U.S. prices, the peso was devalued after Wednesday’s announcement of softer capital controls.   
   # Fund traders are becoming bullish soy oil as prices for the commodity’s competitor, palm oil, rise on fears of El Nino and related production troubles in Asia.    
   # Gold is making just a slight rebound after having tumbled in the wake of the Fed’s interest rate decision.  With the prospect of higher rates and little worry over inflation, gold has lost its shine since peaking in 2011.  The metal still hovers just above $1,000 per ounce.     
   # Dollar index futures were trading lower overnight after a strong rally on Thursday.  Currency traders still look uncertain over what to make out of the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates.  Many would suggest that the small rate increase has long been priced into the market.      

***** Livestock futures look to stabilize as contracts rebound from technically-oversold territory. ****​*

   # Cash cattle were found trading $2 lower out West on Thursday, so a weaker futures board followed. Beef inventories remain high and exports are not helping to clear any excess from the domestic market.  The charts lean bearish as futures notch in fresh contract lows, but oversold conditions are registering.   
   # Hogs futures have fallen in every session so far this week.  The plunge was led by weaker cash markets and weaker than anticipated pork demand.  The bulk of liquidation may be behind us now that the board is technically oversold.