Agrivisor Afternoon Marketwatch

Monday, December 28, 2015

***** Corn futures ended down 3 cents; soybeans down 10-11; Chicago wheat down 1 to 1 3/4. ***** 

   # The generally negative commodity attitude weighed on grain prices to start the day, with soybeans feeling the effects more behind weather and fund activity.       
   # There were good weekend showers across the center/west area of Brazil, with more showers to come this week.  Amounts haven’t been enough to compensate for the recent dryness, but are thought to stabilize the situation for the short term.  Even then, temps are expected to mostly be above normal, keeping evaporation rates high.  Southern Brazil and Argentina are still getting rain, with flooding becoming a problem along some of the Argentine rivers/creeks.
   # There’s still not estimates for the January 12 crop report, with numbers most likely early/middle next week.  Some think changes will be small, while others(especially the bears), others look for fireworks.  January report day is usually a volatile one as the Crop Production release is paired with quarterly grain stocks and winter wheat planting numbers.      
   # Export inspections were about as expected: 51.5 mln. bu. soybeans, 22.5 mln. bu. corn, and 11.2 mln. bu. wheat.   
   # There is some concern about the heavy rains causing river transportation problems with late week crests on the Miss. River south of St. Louis near record levels.  But weather forecasts and smaller amounts in the northern basin are expected to allow crests to pass quickly.  
   # The weekend storm across the S. Plains and Midwest would normally be seen as beneficial because of the snow, but the heavy rains, flooding/ponding, along with the drop in temps could smother wheat in the eastern parts of the Plains, Midsouth, and southern Corn Belt.
   # There was a story out of China suggesting govt. officials are going to more aggressively push their policy to a more market driven direction.  Within this, there’s talk they may start aggressively selling corn out of their stockpiles after the early Feb. Lunar New Year.  Still, it’s more of a domestic issue for them than it is an issue for the world.
   # Equity markets had a weaker bias with the soft energy markets dragging energy stocks lower. The Dow Jones average remains down about one percent for the 2015 calendar year. Morgan Stanley is talking about a decline in world GDP for 2016.  Then Dollar was generally quiet in a slow, holiday trade.

***** Live cattle futures were off $1.15 to $0.77; feeders were off $.62 to $1.40; with lean hogs up $0.82 to $0.67. ***** 

   # The recent cattle report and the change in weather, weekend storm and colder weather ahead, were supportive to cattle futures.  Wholesale strength was a part of the mix too, but profit taking from recent gains capped strength. 
   # Hog futures sustained the upward bias triggered by the smaller than expected numbers on last week’s USDA report.  Weather may have been a small plus, but the short slaughter week and futures premium to cash markets was a drag on the rally.