AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, December 28, 2015
***** Corn fractionally changed at the break; soybeans down 4 cents; Chicago wheat up 1 3/4 to 2 1/2. ​*****

   # Soybeans are the weak link overnight.  A lower close today would make five in a row since futures turned lower from technical resistance early last week.    
   # Rains fell over some of the dry areas of Brazil last week and took some bullishness away from the soybeans.  Weather is likely turning drier again for Mato Grosso through the week.                           
   # Soybean prices were also losing some support from the palm oil market on Monday as Asian palm prices turned lower on weak export data.  Month-to-date Malaysian palm oil exports were down 16 percent from November.         
   # Nearby corn futures have not yet traded back to their lifetime contract low, but they hover just above that $3.62 1/2 mark.  $4.65 1/2 is the mark to watch for March Chicago wheat.            
   # Trading volume was down during last week’s shortened holiday week and will likely be so this week as well, with grain markets closed for New Year’s on Friday.          
   # We will look to see how traders position themselves into the end of the calendar year.  Funds still hold sizable shorts on the grains.  The CFTC’s weekly report on trader positions has been delayed until this afternoon.    
   # U.S. crude prices are down sharply overnight and have given up much of last week’s gains.  The oil weakness is pulling stock index futures lower.  Fresh news for outside markets is rather limited.  Like commodities, most other financial markets will be in for a choppy, light-volumed trade this week.  

***** Cattle look to start on the defensive; hogs open with a test of technical support. *****      

   # Cattle futures are coming off a monster week, one in which the February live contract rallied $11.50.  Cattle on Feed, Cold Storage, and the Hogs and Pigs reports all helped spark the strength.  Cash prices caught up quickly and helped sustain the momentum.   
   # Hogs futures are trending higher on last week’s strength, now approaching some technical resistance from their 50-day moving average.  Traders will look to the wholesale market for some guidance early in the week.