AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, December 29, 2015
***** Corn fractionally changed ahead of the break; soybean futures up 9 cents; Chicago wheat up a nickel. ​*****

   # Soybeans and wheat are posting good gains into the morning break, but corn is flat.  News remains limited and all financial markets feature the kind of light volume trade that is typical of this short holiday week.       
   # Fund traders have been seen liquidating longs in recent sessions.  The CFTC’s last report had funds net short by about 80,000 contracts of corn and 30,000 soybeans.  They’ve likely added at least another 10,000 contracts to the net corn short and about 15,000 to the soybeans.                                
   # March corn futures poked down to a new contract low overnight.  Both corn and soybean futures are down in each of five previous sessions and approach short-run oversold territory.               
   # A Turnaround Tuesday for Asian palm oil prices is helping lend some support to the U.S. soy complex.  Palm oil prices fell hard to start the week as weak exports and better weather prospects were priced into the market.            
   # Ice is causing various bits of damage across the Midwest as heavy rains lead to flood worries.  Rivers are rising quickly with points of the Mississippi expected to crest near record highs later in the week. Severe weather in the Midwest comes after tornadoes racked up damage in Texas this weekend. 
   # Chances for precipitation hang around in the Midwest through tomorrow.  The 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks call for drier weather.  Forecasts have it that temperatures are likely to hover near normal for the next few weeks. 
   # U.S. crude prices are rebounding just moderately after having incurred sharp losses on Monday.  Domestic oil inventories remain burdensomely high and producers abroad like OPEC refuse to cut output or exports.  Low oil prices do much to weigh on the grains, from causing bearish broad commodity market sentiment to crimping ethanol margins.      
   # Futures indicate that the S&P 500 is headed for a higher open on Tuesday.  The stock index is currently posting a small gain for the year when dividends are factored in.  A reading on consumer confidence will be the only bit of important data scheduled for release today.     

***** Cattle likely to correct lower; hogs on the defensive as futures open with a test of technical resistance. *****      

   # Cattle futures are backing off slightly as traders take profits on the recent run up.  Fundamentals may be starting to lean more bullish as slaughters come down and beef demand begins to cycle back stronger.  
   # Hog slaughters are still high but also showing signs of decelerating. Pork prices are showing some resiliency with the carcass average holding just above $70.