AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, January 11, 2016
***** Corn futures down 3 cents; soybeans off 2; Chicago wheat lower by 1. ***** 

   # More oil weakness weighs on the entire commodity space to start of the week.  More Chinese stock weakness keeps traders in outside markets on edge.    
   # This week’s focus will be on Tuesday’s crop reports.  Annual Crop Production numbers will be accompanied by a new set of WASDE balance sheets, a quarterly Grain Stocks report, and a Winter Wheat Seedings report.   
   # Fund traders amassed a record net-short grain position in the last reporting week.  As of last Tuesday, hedge funds held a net corn short of 162,000 contracts and were net-short 80,000 soybeans and 96,000 wheat.         
   # The weekend was a bit drier than anticipated in Mato Grosso and northeastern Brazil this weekend; however, scattered showers are forecasted for region this week.  
   # The two-week outlook for U.S. weather calls for mostly cold, dry conditions.  A polar vortex situated in southern Canada has pushed some very cold air into northern U.S. states this week.      
   #  U.S. winter wheat crops could benefit from some more snow cover to help provide insulation from cold temperatures.  Growers in Russia/Ukraine have enjoyed heavier snows in recent weeks to help protect crops against extremely cold temperatures there.   
   # Asian palm oil prices fell lower on Monday despite a much-anticipated report out of Malaysia that showed both stocks and production falling last month.  U.S. soy oil prices are steady overnight.      

***** Cattle and hogs look to face a weaker start to the week. ***** 

   # Cattle futures turned lower late last week to adjust to a weaker cash market.  Live sales were made around $133, or about $1-$2 lower than the previous week.  February futures have lost technical support from the 50-day moving average but still trade just above the 20-day.    
   # Weakness in the cattle and uneasiness over China and related outside market volatility has weighed on the hog market.  Short-run production fundamentals have also leaned a bit bearish as packers have moved through the backlog of supplies left from short holiday slaughter weeks.