AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, January 14, 2016
***** Corn down 2 1/2 cents ahead of the morning break; soybeans down 2; Chicago wheat down a nickel. *****
   # Grains lower to start the day as traders await the weekly export sales report.  New commitments – corn, soybeans, wheat – should come in around 20, 40, and 10 million bushels, respectively.      
   # A rebound for the Chinese stock market couldn’t save European stocks from tumbling on Thursday.  U.S. index futures are steady overnight, attempting recovery from a sharp Wednesday fall.  Crude oil prices are higher to start, but that has shown to mean little in recent sessions.     
   # On the charts, it’s an ‘inside day’ so far for corn futures.  The most-active March faces resistance from the 20-day moving average and report day’s $3.63 3/4 high after that.  Similar story for March soybeans, with the contract trading just below important resistance from its 100-day moving average.        
   # It’s rain for the dry spots of Brazil this week and dry for the wet spots.  A forecast that has shifted more favorable for growers in South America has been a bearish factor for the grains this month.  
   # With some worry over prospects for domestic use mounting, this Friday’s NOPA crush report will be a key one.  Traders look for December soybean crush to come in near 158 million bushels, which would be down on month and down on year.  
   # In favorable manner for U.S. exporters, the Brazilian real is up against the dollar this week.  The foreign currency is still very much depressed but has appreciated about 5 percent from its late-September bottom. 
   # U.S. stock markets remain shaky as a result of China worries and weak oil, having been unable to fully shift focus toward the start of corporate earnings season.  Several big bank stocks report on Thursday and Friday and may garner some attention.                 
***** Cattle and hogs look to start on the defensive as futures face technical selling.  ***** 

   # Cattle futures may find some support from some expectations for slightly firmer cash sales.  Live bids were being made around $133, but in light volume.  Technical traders should be active today as February futures open where the 20- and 50-day moving averages meet.        
   # Traders will look to take profits on hog futures as long as they maintain such a premium to the cash market.  With the front of the board settling at $61.62 on Wednesday, cash deals are making $50-$52.