AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, January 15, 2016
***** Corn futures up fractionally ahead of the morning break; soybeans lower by 5; steady wheat prices in Chicago and Kansas City. *****        

   # Markets outside of the grains take center stage this morning as China worries further weigh on global equities and crude oil. The as-of-late closely-watched Shanghai Composite dropped 3.5 percent.          
   # WTI and Brent crude futures have dipped below $30 a barrel overnight.  Traders are pricing in prospects for weaker Chinese demand.  They are also selling in anticipation of the up to 1 million barrels per day that could soon be added to Iranian production when Western sanctions against the country are lifted.    
   # On top of bearish China and oil influences, U.S. stock markets are also finding pressure from a poor start to fourth quarter corporate earnings season. Fastenal reported disappointing earnings this morning.  Traders await earnings from Citigroup and Wells Fargo, due out before the opening bell.            
   # News specific to the grains is rather limited.  Corn could be said to be holding up well against broader commodity market weakness.  Soybeans are likely reacting to the weak China storyline.    
   # One bit of news for the soy complex to be released today (11:00 a.m. central) is the monthly NOPA crush numbers.  Total crush should run somewhere near 158 million bushels, which would be down on month and down on year.     
   # The Midwest will face a short spell of cold temperatures this weekend.  Temperatures look to warm to above normal during the latter part of the two-week outlook.    
   # Weather is mostly favorable in South America.  Conab backed off on their estimate for Brazilian soybean production by a bit this week while forecasters in Argentina upped their estimate for that country’s corn crop.                 

***** Cattle and hogs face pressure at the start from outside market weakness, but hogs will look to hold key technical support. ***** 

   # Cattle futures failed to find support from a slightly firmer lot of cash trades observed on Thursday.  Buyers may be content with waiting it out while futures retrace the steep move up that started with a chart gap opened on December 21st.         
   # Hogs have been choppy with spreading a feature of this week’s trade.  There continues to be some desire to buy ahead of the anticipated late-winter/spring supply tightening.  Cash and wholesale prices may also start to catch up to the board.