AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Tuesday, January 19, 2016
***** Corn gains 4 1/2 cents; soybeans up 4 1/2; Chicago wheat fractionally higher as Kansas City wheat finishes fractionally weaker.​ *****

   # Corn leads the grains higher on the first day of a shortened holiday week.  Grain futures hold up against a strong dollar, a bearish reversal for oil prices, and a stock market that finished well off the session highs.   
   # Grains benefited from some short-covering by the fund traders.  Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds with a much bigger net corn short than had been anticipated, one that still likely holds well north of 150,000 contracts.  
   # Export inspections were fair for corn and wheat at 23 and 12 million bushels, respectively.  Soybeans shipments were solid at 51 million bushels but continue to lag behind the projected pace.                
   # A 4.4 million bushel corn sale flashed across the USDA’s daily reporting system. Shipment will be made to an unknown buyer within the 2015/16 crop year.   
   # The closely-watched analysts at Informa have upped their estimates for U.S. row crop plantings.  Corn acres are expected to grow 870,000 acres to 88.9 million while soybeans acres jump 2.6 million to 85.2.       
   # Soybean futures managed a strong close on the charts with the March contract settling above its 100-day moving average.  March corn futures closed just short of resistance from the 50-day.  We will look to see if corn holds momentum now that futures have made a 62 percent retracement of the late-December slide.  
   # Chicago wheat prices face pressure from talk of increased competition out of Russia.  The country’s ruble currency was making a mild rebound after having approached a record low against the dollar on Monday.  Falling oil prices have hurt revenues for the Russian economy and help weigh on the country’s currency.              
   # Australian government meteorologists issued one of their biweekly commentaries on El Nino, stating that cooling waters in the equatorial Pacific point toward the weather phenomenon’s decline.  Their forecasts give the occurrence of La Nina a 50-50 chance for the second half of 2016.  

***** Live cattle up $0.80 to $1.07 as feeders climb $0.52 to $1.57; hogs up $0.07 to $0.87. ***** 

   # Cattle futures were able to stage a mild recovery after Friday’s limit-down session.  Highs couldn’t hold after the chart gap was filled and after midday cutout values trended lower.  
   # Rising pork prices provided hog futures some support on Tuesday. The carcass average was up $1 on the day.  Cash prices were firmer by $2 in the Western Corn Belt.  Slaughters were in line with last week.