AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, January 21, 2016
***** Corn futures down 1 to 1 3/4 ; soybeans up 3 to 3 3/4; Chicago wheat up 3 1/2. *****

   # Soybeans and wheat finished higher but corn fell back into the close after trading higher for most of the morning.  Higher oil and equities helped restore some calm to most major markets.     
   # March corn futures could not make a settlement above Tuesday’s high and slipped below the 50-day moving average while March beans closed in the middle of the range after testing their 100-day average.       
   # The weekly ethanol report was one bit of fresh fundamental news.  Ethanol production was down on the week while stocks grew about 2.8 percent.  Corn used was 103.2 million bushels, still well above the pace needed to meet the USDA’s 2015/16 grind target.                     
   # Export sales are delayed until Friday because of this week’s holiday.  Traders are looking for new corn commitments near 30 million bushels, soybean sales around 35 million, and wheat sales at about 10 million.   
   # The forecast turns drier for South America after some spotted showers move through Brazil and Argentina during the weekend.    
   # Analysts were sorting through some new estimates from the International Grains Council today.  The organization upped world grain carryout by 1 million metric tons to 455 mmt.  The forecast for world corn production fell by but the projection for wheat output rose.  
   # Egypt split its latest wheat purchase between sellers from Russia, Romania, and France.  The top-importers sourced 235,000 metric tons total at an average of $189 per ton, including cost and freight.                    
   # U.S. stocks finished higher as traders were pricing in dovish comments from the European Central Bank president.  The bulls are also betting on China rolling out some additional stimulus measures.
   # Oil rallied despite a weekly stocks report that showed inventories building by 4 million barrels versus expectations of 2.3 million.  Traders were likely finding opportunity to take profits in a market that had gotten technically oversold.  

***** Hogs up $1.02 to $1.95; live cattle jump the $3 limit as feeders finish more than $4 higher.  ***** 

   # Good gains all around for the meats today. Traders thought cattle futures had moved low enough relative to the latest cash deals.  Estimates for tomorrow’s Cattle on Feed report look for placements at 95 percent of the year-ago number and marketings at 102.  Shifting fundamentals and substantial technical momentum continue to allow hog futures to make gains.