AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, January 25, 2016
***** Corn futures fractionally changed; soybeans higher by 4 to 5 cents; Chicago wheat up 6 to 7 1/2. *****

   # Corn and soybeans weather a weaker start as well as negative influences from oil and equity markets.  World weather is the primary focus as news on other fundamentals is limited.       
   # A dry weekend in Brazil stoked some crop concerns as traders wait to see whether forecasted rain storms materialize later in the week.  Wheat growers in Eastern Europe, Russia, and Ukraine are worrying about the recent shift toward extremely cold temperatures.          
   # Weekly export inspections were fair to a little sluggish.  Corn shipments totaled 24 million bushels with soybeans at 44 and wheat at 7.  Cumulative corn shipments are down more than 25 percent year-to-date.            
   # Wheat traders were talking about a cargo of wheat still delayed from unloading in Egypt, wondering if it was really a quality control issue or rather a sign of financing troubles.  Also subject of conversation were reports that the Russians will consider returning export tariffs to their market.        
   # The dollar was softer against most of the major currencies and the Brazilian real, but not against the Argentine peso or Russian ruble.  
   # March corn futures finished in the bottom half of the day’s trade range, but the contract holds onto support from the 50-day moving average, something it hasn’t done for two days straight since October.  March soybeans settled just 1/2 cent short of their 100-day moving average.    
   # Without many other negatives to mention, lower oil was the major headwind for U.S. equities.  It is shaping up to be another volatile week for stocks as traders will have a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to monitor.  Only a very slim chance is assigned to the possibility of another interest rate increase this month.       

***** Live cattle drop $0.97 to $1.42 as feeders drop $0.42 to $1.40; February hogs up $0.50 and April down $0.20.  ***** 

   # Cattle futures were lower on the day but could be said to have held up well against pressure from Friday’s bearish on-feed report.  This is likely a week when buyers will be cautious until action in the cash market develops.   
   # More spreading defined the hog futures trade at the start of the week.  Traders are quick to take profits on rallies while futures are still in technically-overbought territory.