AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, January 26, 2016
***** Corn down fractionally; soybean futures off 2 to 3 cents ahead of the break; Chicago Wheat down a penny. *****             

   # Grains still maintain some short-term technical momentum, but the market lacks fresh fundamental news.  Outside markets remain volatile with equities following oil tick for tick.        
   # Some currency concerns helped spark a selloff in Chinese equity markets on Tuesday.  The Shanghai Composite dropped 6.4 percent.  No rallies to speak of, but stocks markets in Europe have held up pretty well as U.S. futures are steady overnight.                     
   # Fund traders did not reveal a strong bias for their corn trades on Monday, being net even on the day and remaining net short by about 150,000 contracts.  Their net soybean short has been whittled down to around 20,000 contracts.       
   # Palm oil prices were a touch higher in Asia on Tuesday, sparking a moderate bounce in U.S. soy oil futures overnight.  Palm oil exports have proven a bit sluggish over the past two months, but production concerns continue to underpin the market.     
   # Some data out of China confirmed that the country imported a record amount of coarse grains in 2015, including 82 percent more corn than had been purchased the year before.
   # U.S. weather is expected to turn warmer/wetter than average over the next two weeks.  Still, the warm spell could be briefly broken up by a snow/ice storm that may roll through the Midwest on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.         
   # Today starts the two day Federal Reserve meeting on the economy and the plan for interest rates.  A follow-up hike to the quarter-point interest rate increase in December is not expected at this time.  

***** Hogs to start steady/firmer with upside action limited by technical resistance; cattle futures work to keep chart support at the open. ***** 

   # Cattle priced in a bearish placements number from Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.  Traders moved on from the report rather quickly, but only to find wholesale prices continue to drift back lower.  Boxed beef prices are about 88 percent of the value they held a year ago.        
   # The hog fundamentals remain bullish as traders price in expectations for tighter spring numbers; however, a more than 20 percent rally from November lows leaves futures technically overbought in the near-run.