AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, January 27, 2016
*****Good Morning!*****

   # Grains trade mixed in tight overnight ranges.  Oil and equities are back weaker. Financial traders await a statement from the Federal Reserve after the Board wraps up its two day meeting.       
   # The Fed statement could inject some volatility into the dollar market.  Index futures have traded rather quietly so far in 2016 as they consolidate near the 100-point mark.  Dollar strength continues to be a headwind for the U.S. grain export programs.            
   # Chinese policymakers plan to remove grain price supports in a bid to reduce the country's swollen stockpile.  The move could result in lessened demand for U.S. wheat and for corn substitutes like DDGs.        
   # Predictions for U.S. planting intentions will soon garner increased attention.  Traders are still very much uncertain about the 2016 acreage mix.  USDA's annual Prospective Plantings report is scheduled for March 31st.   
   # Russia's ag minister estimated the country's 2015 grain harvest at 104.3 million metric tons, which is about where the 2016 crop is currently pegged.  Wheat growers there have had some concern lately as extremely cold temperatures come in to replace what had been a mild winter.
   # Ethanol production numbers will be scrutinized today after last week's report showed slowing output.  Snow closures in the nation's capitol will delay the weekly export sales report until Friday.          
   # Equities are following oil lower, having not been aided by the Wednesday rebound for Chinese stock markets.  Traders will have the weekly energy stocks report to digest before they comb through the Fed statement.   

***** Hogs to start steady/firmer with upside action limited by technical resistance; cattle futures look to work higher at the open. ***** 

   # Some optimism over cash market potential lends fed cattle futures some support.  Wholesale prices continue to lean weaker.  The most-active April contract is struggling with technical resistance from its 20-day moving average.   
   # The hog fundamentals remain bullish as traders price in expectations for tighter spring numbers.  Improving wholesale prices are keeping cash bids firm.