AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, February 01, 2016
***** Corn down 3 1/2 to 4 cents overnight; soybeans down 4 3/4; Chicago wheat lower by 6 1/4. *****

   # Weak manufacturing data out China triggers some short-selling in the commodity space overnight.  Weak commodities weigh on equities.  
   # Fresh fundamental news is somewhat limited for the grains to start the week.  Traders will have a look at weekly export inspections mid-morning.  A grain crushings report will be released after the closing bell.   
   # Fund traders were big buyers of the grains in the last official reporting week.  The CFTC report showed the large speculators covering 70,000 contracts of corn to leave them net-short by 87,000 contracts.  Funds remain net-short soybeans by 30,000 contracts and Chicago wheat by 51,000.
   # A potentially-strong winter storm is developing in the central Plains today and could become a blizzard when it reaches north-central Iowa.  The storm precedes what a spell of very cold temperatures forecasted for the Midwest starting next weekend.        
   # Growers in Brazil are enjoying mostly-favorable weather conditions. Scattered showers will help developing soybeans but could delay the start of harvest for some.  The two-week forecast has Argentina leaning a little on the dry side.    
   # Dollar index futures are moderately lower overnight.  The currency market will be featured prominently this week as traders price in more change in world interest rate spreads.  Japanese rates have fallen to record lows as the ECB and Bank of England mull action.  

***** Hogs to start steady/weaker as the meats have general outside market pressure to deal with; cattle futures look likely to start on the defensive. *****
   # Cattle are likely to face some added pressure this week after Friday’s inventory report.  The report showed all cattle and calves totaling 3 percent more than they did a year ago.  Now the second straight year of head-count gains, herd expansion is well underway.          
   # Hogs continue higher as improved wholesale prices support strong cash bids.  The technical trend remains positive, but futures are trading in short-run overbought territory on the charts.