AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, February 04, 2016
***** Corn up 2 1/4 cents at the break; soybe futures fractionally higher; Chicago wheat fractionally higher. ***** 

   # Grains trade higher, but soybeans face some pressure from weak export sales in the last 15 minutes of the overnight session.  A sharply lower dollar lends broad support to the market.    
   # Export sales are featured for the grains this morning.  Corn sales were very strong at 44.5 million bushels and beat the top end of trade guesses.  Soybeans sales were very disappointing at a net-negative 1.6 million bushels after last week’s cancellation from China.  Wheat sales were very poor at 2.4 million bushels.  
   # Estimates are starting to circulate for next Tuesday’s balance sheet update. The average guess looks for corn carryout to rise fractionally from the last report to 1.809 billion bushels.  Soybean ending stocks should also rise slightly to 445 million bushels. 
   # Conab reduced its estimate for Brazil’s soybean harvest from 102.1 to 100.9 million metric tons while upping the guess for corn production from 82.3 to 83.3 mmmt.  USDA NASS’s last report had corn output at 81.5 million metric tons with the soybean harvest forecasted at 100 mmmt.  
   # Australian meteorologists issued an update on El Nino this week.  They have observed further cooling in the equatorial Pacific but say El Nino is still strong, projecting it to stick with us until sometime in the year’s second quarter.          
   # The updated two-week weather outlook continues to lean colder than normal for the Midwest.  Low temperatures would still only drop to the high-teens.  Light snow showers could fall early next week, but the period is mostly dry.      
   # U.S. equity index futures are a touch weaker overnight.  Lower oil is a headwind, as are data on jobless claims, which rose by 8,000 last week.  The monthly unemployment report will be out tomorrow morning.    

***** The meats likely to start with some slight gains as futures look to hold chart support. ***** 

   # Cattle futures have found some support from weather worries resulting from the winter storm out West.  Buyers will approach the futures market with caution until some bids develop in the cash market.              
   # Hogs rebounded on Wednesday after losses were racked up through the first two days of the week.  Futures will open with a test of technical support on Thursday.