AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, February 08, 2016
***** Corn futures down a few overnight; soybeans off 3 to 3 1/2 cents; Chicago wheat lower by 3. *****    

   # Grains are lower as a risk-off trade spreads through major markets.  Safe-haven assets like gold, U.S. treasuries, the dollar, and yen are up overnight.           
   # The government will update the grain balance sheets on Tuesday in its release of the WASDE report at 11:00 a.m. central.  Analysts go into the numbers expecting little change for U.S. and world carryout estimates, so the trade could be in for a surprise if USDA makes any significant adjustments.
   # Most meteorologist agree that, while El Nino is on the way out, it will continue to influence world weather patterns well into the second quarter of 2016.  Current odds peg the chance of a La Nina at about 50-50, with the event likely developing late summer if at all. 
   # Clear skies over much of Brazil allowed soybean harvest to accelerate this weekend.  A couple of fresh production estimates were circulating last week, but there remains a good deal of uncertainty in forecasts that generally range from 98-101 million metric tons.   
   # Traders have noted a dry forecast for Argentina this week, although growers are coming off of weekend that provided good rains for many.  
   # Argentina is also talked about for having maintained large surpluses of old-crop soybeans, even in the face of high prices and the recent cut to export taxes.  The country remains a formidable competitor for U.S. exporters and adds to concern that last week's disappointing sales report had stirred.    
   # U.S. stock future face pressure from follow-through selling after last week’s poor performance and as sharply lower European stocks help stir some worry.  The economic calendar is mostly bare this week, but traders will have some congressional testimony from Fed Chair Yellen to sort through starting on Wednesday.   

***** Livestock futures likely to open with pressure from weak outside markets. *****

   # Cattle futures face some pressure from profit-taking and chart resistance but should continue to be provided support from a firm cash market.  
   # Strength in cash and wholesale markets lends continued support to hog futures.  April hogs are still working with plenty of technical momentum as they open with a test of support from their 10-day moving average.