AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, February 10, 2016
***** Corn futures down 1 1/2 cent ahead of the break; soybean futures higher by 1 1/4; Chicago wheat fractionally lower. *****
   # Grains trade quietly mixed overnight as the market lacks fresh news input.  Global equity markets are stabilizing as European bank stocks are able to rebound from Tuesday’s rout.  Oil is higher ahead of the weekly U.S. energy stocks report.      
   # Tuesday’s Supply and Demand report came and went without much fanfare.  U.S. carryout estimates for corn, soybeans, and wheat all went higher in yet another confirmation of big old-crop inventories.  No major surprises were given by changes to world production estimates.         
   # Market participants will have more crop estimates to digest at the end of the month when USDA meets for the annual Agricultural Outlook Forum.  Primary discussion topics include consideration of a slowing Chinese economy and its influence on agriculture.   
   # Five straight lower closes brings about a bearish technical trend for corn futures.  March corn has fallen below the major moving averages as it heads toward the $3.48 1/2 contract low.      
   # Malaysian palm oil exports were down sharply on the month, but no surprise there as the country and others in Asia are on holiday for the lunar new year.  Strong palm oil prices continue to support buying interest in the U.S. soyoil market.  El Nino-related palm production deficits are expected to persist through the entire first half of 2016.    
   # Weather is favorable for farmers in Brazil this week.  Scattered showers are only a disruption for some as they move close to 15 percent done with soybean the soybean harvest.  A dry couple of days for Argentina follow a wet weekend and more prospects for needed rain this weekend.          
   # Stock trader will continue to sort through fourth quarter corporate earnings reports and will dissect testimony that Fed Chair Janet Yellen will present to Congress.  Market participants will continue to keep a close eye on global bond rates as yields slip in a signal of concern about the state of the global economy.   

***** Livestock futures likely to open with a slightly firmer bias as hogs work higher from technical support and cattle face less pressure from outside markets. ***** 

   # A choppy session for cattle futures on Tuesday as futures ultimately failed at various points of technical resistance.  There is some growing optimism over cash prices being able to rebound from last week’s unanticipated weakness.  
   # Hog futures will continue higher as long as strength continues to be sustained in the cash and wholesale markets.  Buyers will look to bounce April hogs higher from their 20-day moving average as they were able to successfully do twice in January.