AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, February 11, 2016
***** Corn futures down fractionally; soybeans up 10 to 11 1/4 cents; Chicago wheat steady to 3 lower. ​*****

   # Corn and wheat failed to hold on to early-session gains but soybeans sustain a rally into the close.  Grains could be said to have held up well against outside market pressures.        
   # Volatility in outside markets continues to be pronounced.  Oil prices have tumbled to twelve-year lows and U.S. equity indexes approach bear market territory.  All the while, global bond yields are reaching new lows as worries about the health of the global economy deepen.               
   # Economic worries have been cause for an anxiety-driven trade that sends investors seeking safe-haven assets.  Gold prices have now gained nearly $200 in 2016.  Money is also flowing toward U.S. treasuries and currencies like the Japanese yen.     
   # Grain export sales were on the disappointing end of the trade range this week.  New corn sales of 16 million bushels were down significantly from last week’s 44.5 million and much lower than estimates calling for 31 to 43 million.  Soybean sales of 24.5 million bushels were near the lowest trade estimates.        
   # More rain is slated for the driest parts of Argentina this weekend.  Growers in Brazil are enjoying mostly clear skies as the soybean harvest ramps up.  
   # Soybeans made solid gains on the day, but soyoil futures climbed even higher.  Edible oil markets continue to firm up as drought cuts palm output prospects for growers in Asia.    
   # Russian officials are expected to give guidance on the country’s wheat export tax structure soon.  Analysts have thought that Russian wheat exports will increase this year, but that could change if continued currency weakness causes the government to raise taxes in an effort to support the domestic market. 
   # Dollar index futures sunk lower again as traders price in a changing outlook for U.S. interest rates.  The dollar index is down in eight of the previous nine sessions – with most daily losses having been significant. March index futures are off about four percent so far in February.     

***** Live cattle down $2 to $2.40 as feeders drop $1 to $1.95; hogs up $0.82 to $1.17. *****

   # Some of the optimism over the cash trade faded as sales deals were made at $133 versus $136 last week.  April futures opened a down gap on the charts with technical resistance now served by today’s high at $130.90.    
   # Hog futures started lower but turned up as cold weather worries offset bearish recent weight gains.  April futures recaptured support from the 20-day moving average but will face formidable resistance on a move toward the recent $70.95 high.