AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, February 16, 2016
***** Corn futures up 2 1/2 cents ahead of the break; soybeans up 3 3/4 to 4 1/2; Chicago wheat higher by 4. ​*****

   # Grains trade higher with support from outside markets.  Stock index futures point to a higher open after global markets rallied on Monday.  European banks are less of a worry so far this week.  Chinese policymakers are showing a willingness to stimulate their economy.          
   # Oil futures are firmer but trade well off of overnight highs as traders mull over news that four OPEC members have agreed to hold output unchanged from January levels.  Saudi Arabia and Russia are part of the agreement; others could join.  The news comes as somewhat of a disappointment considering many had called for a production cut.
   # Fund traders are back to being net-short corn by about 100,000 contracts.  The large speculators have also re-upped on their bearish soybean bet and are net-short by around 70,000 contracts.               
   # Export inspections will be reported at 10:00 a.m. central.  The sales report will be delayed until Friday due to Monday’s holiday.  Sluggish exports remain a headwind for the market with many analysts calling for further reductions to the USDA targets.         
   # The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) will report January crush today.  The consensus estimate calls for 154 million bushels.  Last month’s disappointing crush tally was a likely catalyst for the USDA’s 10 million bushel cut to the 2015/16 crush target.    
   # Reports on farmland values from the various Federal Reserve districts are being talked about.  The Chicago District found farmland in northern and central Illinois to have declined by 3 percent in 2015. The Kansas City Fed recently observed a similar trend for states out West.         
   # Much of Brazil and Argentina received beneficial rains over the weekend.  Wet weather has caused only minor delay to the Brazilian soybean harvest, which is estimated at 15 to 20 percent complete.  
   # The 6-10 day forecast leans warm and dry for the U.S. Temperatures should climb warmer through the rest of February.  

***** Live cattle look to open steady/firmer in a bid to keep technical support; hog futures likely to benefit from some follow-through buying. ****​*

   # Cattle futures face pressure from a cash market that has seen deals slip below expectations over the past two weeks.  Wholesale beef prices continue to inch lower.  April live cattle now face a test of technical support from the January 20th low of $127.15.   
   # Firm cash and wholesale markets continue to support hog futures.  The technical trend remains bullish, but April hogs will have to surpass $71.12 in order to sustain the momentum.