AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, February 17, 2016
***** Corn futures down fractionally; soybeans down 1 to 2 3/4 cents; Chicago wheat off a penny ahead of the morning break.​ *****

   # Grains trade quietly overnight with some chart resistance giving futures a slightly weaker bias.  March corn futures struggle to surpass just their 10-day moving average while the 100-day turns away recent strength for soybeans.  
   # U.S. stocks look to benefit from better markets in Europe and China today. Traders will have minutes from the January Fed meeting to digest later in the day.
   # Higher oil helps stoke a risk-on trade.  The market will continue to price in differing opinions on what the latest OPEC output decision means for prices.  WTI futures have some technical resistance to work through, including Tuesday’s $31.53 high for the nearby contract.    
   # Market participants are looking forward to seeing some new-crop production numbers when the USDA meets for its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum on February 25-26.  Most important to the trade will likely be the 2016 acres projections.                 
   # Export inspections were nothing special on Tuesday.  Corn shipments were 27 million bushels for the week, leaving the year’s cumulative total to lag the previous one’s by 20 percent.  The export sales report will be delayed until Friday.  
   # All is mostly quiet on the weather front.  Temperatures across most of the U.S. will warm up slightly in the next two weeks leaving wheat winterkill a non-threat.  Weather in Brazil is favorable for soybean conditions, harvest progress, and second-crop corn plantings.  Argentina has some localized flooding issues.  Russia and Ukraine remain warm but wheat crops are vulnerable to winterkill if temperatures turn colder.  
   # Egypt is making news again as the country is reported to have rejected a Canadian wheat shipment due to phytosanitary issues.  The top-importer is likely to find offer levels rising to account for risk related to possible rejection.           

***** Livestock futures look to open steady/lower as both cattle and hogs may find support from outside markets but face immediate technical resistance. *****

   # Strong outside markets helped cattle futures recover on Tuesday.  Some short-covering was observed after live futures had settled lower in 6 of 7 previous sessions and were approaching January lows.  Buyers will need some support from a cash market that is so far undeveloped this week.     
   # Wholesale prices were seen leveling off slightly to start the week, so traders took some profit off the table.  April hogs have technical resistance to work through this week.