AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, March 01, 2016
***** Corn up fractionally ahead of the break; soybeans up 4 to 5 cents; Chicago wheat up 1 to down 2. *****
   # Corn and soybeans hold slight gains overnight while wheat is off moderately, similar to how futures started yesterday before corn and soybeans ultimately finished lower and wheat up.            
   # The bulls are working to defend old contract lows.  With First Notice Day on Monday for March grains, the May contracts are now the most heavily traded and give us better technical guidance. May corn has a contract low at $3.54 1/4 while May soybeans bottomed at $8.53 ½ on November 23rd.  
   # The Brazilian real currency is virtually unchanged against the dollar overnight.  There has been some recent pressure on the currency after Brazil’s credit rating was cut.  The country is expected to remain in recession through most of this year.           
   # Growers in southern Brazil are happy to see a drier forecast for this week.  Soybean harvest is still running a normal pace, but some recent efforts have been disrupted by wet weather that also threatens quality.  Brazil is about a third done with the soybean harvest.   
   # Asian palm oil prices were lower on Tuesday as traders fretted over weakening demand.  While an El Nino-linked drought has cut palm production for the top producers Malaysia and Indonesia, exports out of those countries have been sluggish at the start of the new calendar year.
   # WTI crude futures are working to clear technical resistance from their 50-day moving average.  The market recovered by a quick 20 percent from the February 11 lows.  Some analysts are calling a bottom for oil after low prices have started to do their job to crimp production and spur demand.
   # U.S. stock index futures were higher with spillover support from international markets.  Chinese stocks closed higher despite a weak PMI reading.  Higher oil helps.             
***** Cattle futures look to open with some strength but profit-taking may limit upside; hogs likely to start mixed as buyers defend technical support.  ***** 

   # Cattle buyers are likely to approach the market with some caution after recent price strength and ahead of better-developed expectations for spring season demand.  April live futures enjoy technical momentum but face resistance from the recent $138.95 high.   
   # Similar of the approach to cattle, it is early yet to tell a whole lot about how well spring pork demand will develop. The expectations for supplies to begin moving lower helps support prices, but traders are left to question how much of the tighter supply outlook is already priced into the market.