AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Wednesday, March 02, 2016
***** Corn up fractionally; soybeans higher by 3 1/2 to 4 cents; Chicago wheat up 3 3/4 to 4 1/4. ​*****

   # Corn futures close with only a fractional gain but break a six day losing streak.  Soybean futures were the next best performer on the session but could not best Tuesday’s highs, which will serve as minor short-term resistance.  Wheat futures led the way higher as traders took advantage of oversold technicals.      
   # Funds were light buyers on the day, covering only about as much as they shorted on Tuesday.  The bearish grain bet held by managed money still hovers near a record high as the large speculators attempt to drag futures to new contract lows.   
   # Ethanol production was down on the week but stocks dropped by more than production did.  Margins improved as demand strengthened.  Corn grind was a still-strong 103.6 million bushels.    
   # The closely-watched analysts at Informa look for a considerable gain in global corn production this year, projecting 2016 output of 998 million metric tons.  The USDA’s current estimate for 2015 production is 970 mmt.  
   # Export sales will be reported tomorrow.  Corn bookings have totaled close to 1 million metric tons over the past few weeks.  Analysts look for new corn sales to drop to something near 750,000 mt this week.  Soybean sales are projected to come in around 400,000.  Wheat sales likely remain weak.           
   # The latest runs of the weather models suggest we’re headed for a warm March/April/May.  Analysts are debating over what influence warm spring weather will have on the row crop planting mix.  Many thought that the USDA looks a bit high on corn acreage, a little low on soybeans when the government released estimates from last week’s Outlook Forum.            
   # Stocks were trading with some slight gains this afternoon after spending most of the session in the red.  Traders are reluctant to think that global economy worries are totally behind us. Some strong jobs data and late strength for crude helped the U.S. market.         

***** Live cattle settle $0.15 to $0.80 lower while feeders finish fractionally changed; lean hogs also end fractionally mixed.​ *****

   # Buying interest was limited as cash cattle bids are still hard to pin down.  April live futures held support from their 10-day moving average.  Boxed beef was mixed with the premium held by choice over select cuts widening back out.  
   # Hog traders looked to want to take some additional money off the table but the board found support from firmer cash and wholesale markets.