AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, March 02, 2016
***** Corn and soybeans fractionally firmer, Chicago wheat fractionally weaker. ​***** 

   # Grains are steady overnight on light trading volume. Futures are unable to gain any traction to the upside despite having dropped considerably over the past week and a half.               
   # Grains face further pressure from technical selling.  May corn futures traded only 1 1/2 cents short of their contract low on Tuesday.  A bearish outside day made for the sixth straight lower close for soybeans. The lifetime low for May soybeans is $8.53 1/2.  
   # Weekly ethanol data will be reported today.  Production continues to run high despite lower oil prices and crimped margins.  Corn grind has totaled more than 100 million bushels for many straight weeks.  Usage needs to total 98.6 million bushels per week to meet the USDA’s current 5.225 billion goal.                                  
   # Soybean bears note that while exports are right on pace to meet the USDA target, crushings have fallen behind.  Some analysts are looking for eventual cuts to the USDA crush estimate to total 20-30 million bushels.  Still Tuesday’s crush report had the January total at 4.81 million metric tons, which was slightly better than anticipated. 
   # After losing more than 30 cents on the way to new contract lows last month, weaker wheat is becoming a headwind for the corn market.  Traders are now taking note of French wheat that is cheaper than U.S. corn for many buyers.     
   # U.S. stock index futures trade a touch lower overnight as the market prices in lower oil against a strong report on jobs.  Payrol gains were 214,000 in February compared to 193,000 last month and versus expectations of a 190,000 total.  

***** Cattle futures look to open with some follow-through strength, but technical resistance limits gains; hogs likely to start mixed as buyers defend technical support.  ***** 

   # Cattle traders need to see some bids in the cash market in order to have more guidance for the rest of the week’s trade.  The technicals make for a choppy trade as buyers show interest near support from the major moving averages but stand ready to take profits up near the three-month high.     
   # Buyers are cautious on the hogs after the recent run-up has gone a long way to price in expectations for tighter spring supplies.  Demand still has to do its part and we’ll start to know more about demand when we can better evaluate consumption on Easter.