AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Thursday, March 03, 2016
***** Another quiet overnight session has grains trading with light gains.  Outside markets are also quiet with oil, equities, and the dollar all steady. ***** 

   # Export sales will be reported at 7:30 cst. Traders expect to see new corn sales near 30 million bushels (down on the week), soybean sales around 15 mbu, and wheat sales near 10 mbu.     
   # The new warm weather forecasts are proving somewhat friendly to the wheat market as traders price in some worry over crops breaking dormancy early and becoming vulnerable if temperatures would turn back cold again.
   # For corn and soybeans, the warm weather forecasts have traders wondering what effect an early start to the planting season would have on the acreage mix.  The soybean/corn price multiple crept higher in February, but there isn’t a real feeling that the market is yet trying to ‘buy’ acreage from any one crop over the other.                   
   # Soyoil futures lead the complex higher with support from gains in the palm oil market.  Soyoil finished lower on Wednesday after a report from the USDA showed inventories at a high level.        
   # Some rain in northern Brazil could be disruptive this weekend, but the country remains on a good pace as nearly 40 percent of the soybean crop has been harvested. 
   # Oil futures made surprising turnabout to close higher on Wednesday despite a government report that showed crude inventories rising by a hefty 10 million bushels last week.  WTI futures are working to build off of support from their 50-day moving average but still trade well short of important recent highs.  
   # U.S. equity index futures are directionless overnight as influence from higher markets in Asia helps offset weakness in Europe.  It is the first week of the month, so traders are looking forward to Friday, when they will get a look at the February jobs report.      

***** Cattle futures look to open with some slight strength; hogs likely to start mixed as short-run technical support is tested. ***** 

   # Cattle traders expect to have some guidance from cash bids that should start to show up today.  Lower weights and tighter supplies should keep buyers interested but demand will have to do its part as we get closer to Easter.   
   # Cash hogs gained on Wednesday, but there wasn’t a strong feeling that the market could continue to improve by much in the near-term.  Buyers are being generally cautious after a run-up in futures that put 25 percent of value back into the board after fall lows were made.