AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, March 07, 2016
***** Corn futures up 1/2 to 1 1/2 cent; soybeans gain 2 1/2 to 3 1/4 cents; Chicago wheat higher by 2 to 3.  *****

   # Grains were higher throughout the session but gains faded into the close.  Funds were buyers early in an effort to lighten up their short bets.    
   # A shoring up of confidence in emerging markets was the story of the day.  There is some renewed optimism over China’s ability to adjust to slower growth.  A result of changing sentiment was the nearly 20 percent rally for iron ore.       
   # Crude oil strength was a prominent feature of Monday’s trade.  There have been notable shifts in the opinions of industry analysts, many of whom now say a bottom is in.  Low prices seem to have begun doing their job of crimping global production.    
   # Worry about wet weather marks the beginning of our 2016 planting season.  The two-week outlook is wet and shows rain possibly disrupting early planting efforts in the U.S. Delta.  El Nino could be cause for some extra moisture this spring as the weather phenomenon makes its exit.  USDA will begin making their weekly Planting Progress updates in the first or second week of April.                
   # Corn export shipments were solid this week at 37 million bushels but continue to run behind last year’s pace.  Soybean inspections were a hair over last week at 39 million bushels.  Cumulative soybean shipments are 7 percent behind the year ago, which is close to in line with the USDA target.   
   # May corn futures settled above their daily pivot but could not retake support from the 10-day moving average. Soybeans fared better technically with the May contract settling on its 100-day moving average with potential support from a new gap opened today.  $8.90 remains key resistance for soybeans.  
   # U.S. stock indexes were fractionally mixed as weakness for technology shares was offset by gains in the energy and mining sectors.  Traders will have guidance this week from a meeting among European Central Bank (ECB) officials, whom are expected to announce further measures of monetary stimulus.         

***** Live cattle settle $0.40 to $0.50 lower as feeders finish fractionally mixed; lean hog futures end steady to $0.75 weaker. *****

   # Live cattle finished weaker but with futures well off of session lows.  Cash sales never shaped up as strongly as anticipated last week.  April futures keep support from a converging set of 20-, 50-, and 100-day moving averages.  
   # Hog futures kept ahead of last week’s lows but spent Monday on the defensive.  After observing several weeks of gains, traders wait to see how spring demand will develop.