AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, March 08, 2016
***** Corn down 1 1/2 at the break; soybeans off 2 1/2 to 3; Chicago wheat lower by 2 3/4 to 3. *****

   # Grains drift lower overnight after a somewhat weak close on Monday. Soft commodities are down.  Gold and silver are up with copper down moderately.  Energies are a touch higher.  
   # Analysts at most of the big banks suggest that the recent commodity rally is to be short-lived.  They continue to cite large global inventories and slowing demand for their pessimism.       
   # The Chinese reported some weak trade data on Tuesday.  Exports in February were down 25.4 percent on the year versus expectations of a 15 percent decline.  A narrowing trade surplus coincides with shrinking foreign reserves as a drag on the economy.   
   # Heavy rainfall totals could be observed across the majority of the U.S. this week.  The weather models still lean warm for the next two weeks.    
   # Asian palm oil prices were mostly lower as traders await a key report on production.  Analysts see 2016 being another year of struggle for producers, so prices could continue to rise.  
   # The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported new production and consumption estimates.  ICO says prices have declined recently as a result of large inventories and weak export demand.  Production could be curbed if a La Nina event means dry weather for growers like Columbia.       
   # The Brazilian real is trading back higher overnight.  Real futures are up in four of the five previous sessions as traders price in expectations for improved economic health.  

***** Cattle look to head lower for a test of technical support; hogs likely to start on the defensive. *****

   # Wholesale beef prices have started off a little firmer this week but there remains uncertainty over what to expect for cash market direction.  Seasonal influences of lighter weights and the approaching acceleration of consumption help support cattle futures.       
   # Hog slaughters are keeping a slightly stronger pace than had been anticipated, but prices still find support from optimistic expectations over summer demand.