AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Thursday, March 10, 2016
***** Corn up 3 to 3 1/2 cents; soybeans gain 3 1/4 to 3 1/2; Chicago wheat higher by 8 1/2 to 8 3/4. *****

   # A reversal down for the dollar helped the grain market to perk up.  The ECB announced it would cut interest rates and initiate further quantitative easing.  The news was immediately negative the euro, positive the dollar, but the currencies switched direction shortly after.
   # Wednesday’s WASDE report was digested a little further.  The unrevised U.S. corn carryout estimate remains high, but there wasn’t a 20-25 million bushel addition like many thought there would be.  Overall, there was some price positives that came out of lower world ending stocks estimates for corn, soybeans, and wheat.         
   # The short-run technicals shape up a bit better for the grains.  May corn futures settled on their 20-day moving average and bested the week’s high.  May soybeans have closed above their 100-day moving average in all of the previous three sessions, but could not clear important resistance at $8.90.      
   # Funds were net buyers on the day but remain quite bearish on the grains.  The large speculators are estimated to hold a net-short of nearly 200,000 contracts of corn and 100,000 Chicago wheat.  The net-short soybean position probably hovers just above 50,000 contracts.     
   # Corn exports were near the top end of trade estimates this week at 46 million bushels.  New soybean sales were 17 million bushels and just slightly short of the average trade guess.  Wheat sales were 12 mbu.        
   # Backed up ships at Brazilian ports were the subject of a newswire story today.  Traders wonder if the logistical issues will combine with a shift in the dollar/real rate to shift some business back to U.S. exporters.       
   # Another 6-8 inches fell over parts of Louisiana over the past 24 hours with the storm system delaying early planting efforts in much of the Delta.  Today’s run of the government weather models has the 6-10 forcast remaining warm and wet with the 8-14 day leaning cooler and wetter to the East.  

***** Hog futures settle $0.07 to $0.40 higher; live cattle up $0.72 to $1.52 as feeders gain $2.10 to $2.85. ***** 

   # Cattle futures made good gains behind strength in the wholesale market.  There were no cash deals to report as of mid-afternoon.  Some technical buying was observed, but the nearby live futures contract faces a test of important resistance just overhead at $138.95.        
   # Hogs inched higher on some momentum from Wednesday’s trade.  Wholesale prices started weaker before turning up into the afternoon report.