AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, March 11, 2016
***** Corn up fractionally at the break; soybeans up 2 3/4 to 3 3/4 cents; Chicago wheat steady. *****

   # Grains trade steady to higher overnight, supported by some short-run technical momentum and by friendly action in outside markets.  
   # Soybean futures cleared an important level of technical resistance at $8.90 overnight.  The curve has a test of $9.00 just ahead, but it may be a struggle to maintain momentum after seven straight higher closes.  May corn futures are working up from their 20-day moving average for a test of resistance from the 50-day at $3.66.  
   # Wheat prices are fractionally changed overnight after having enjoyed six higher closes in the last seven sessions while gaining nearly seven percent from fresh lows made at the beginning of the month.  End users are stepping into the market to buy at these levels that allow good margins.      
   # The latest run of the U.S. weather model has the Delta drying out in the next 6-10 days, but there is a lack of agreement with the European model which leans wetter.  The temperature trend remains warm through the end of the month.        
   # Some fresh production estimates out of South America are being digested.  Brazil’s Conab agency projected that country’s soybean crop to come in at 101.2 million metric tons with corn output expected at 83.5 mmt.  USDA’s March estimates held at 100 and 84 mmt.  The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange looks for Argentina to harvest a 58 mmt soybean crop and 25 mmt of corn.      
   # Dollar index futures are correcting back higher after a volatile day left the currency lower against most of its major pairings.  Traders are pricing in a decision from the ECB over interest rates while at the same time placing bets on expected action from the U.S. Fed.  
   # Global equity markets trade higher at the end of the week.  Accommodative action from the ECB helps, as does some recently-restored confidence in prospects for emerging markets.  Oil strength also lends support.    

***** Live cattle futures face test of key tech resistance at the open; hogs should find support from friendly action in outside markets, but gains limited by profit-taking on overbought conditions. *****

   # Traders will look to see if the cash cattle market develops more fully this afternoon.  Many were surprised to see some deals done early this week at prices steady with the last market, but much volume never materialized afterward. 
   # The pork cutout remains supported in anticipated of declining supplies and increased demand.  Traders only wonder whether or not the price positives related to a better balance of supply and demand this spring/summer have been priced into the futures curve already.