AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, March 14, 2016
***** Corn futures settle higher by 3 3/4 to 4 1/4 cents; soybeans steady to fractionally higher; Chicago wheat up 3. *****

   # Corn futures led the grains higher as funds were seen covering shorts.  The weekly CFTC data showed managed money to have added 25,000 lots to a net-short position that already had stacked up to more than 200,000 contracts. 
   # Grains shrugged off the weight of lower oil prices.  The oil market was weaker after Iran announced that it would up its output by 4 million barrels per day.  A higher dollar also placed very little pressure on the grains.  
   # It was Last Trading Day for March grain futures.  March corn settled near the low end of its lifetime range of $3.48 1/2 to $5.12.  March soybeans achieved a contract high of $12.16 1/4 in May of 2014 while notching in a low of $8.47 in late November, 2014.  The contract range for Chicago wheat was $4.35 1/4 to $7.69.
   # The new-nearby May futures contract is the only contract on the curve left trading below $9.  Futures were able to clear important resistance from $8.90 last week.  A bullish zero-line crossover on the daily MACD helps portrays strong momentum. 
   # Export inspections were fully anticipated by traders with corn shipments at 31.6 million bushels on the week.  Soybean inspections totaled 26.3 and wheat 14.9 million bushels.  Totals for corn, soybeans, and wheat all declined from the previous week.     
   # The NOPA crush report will be issued tomorrow.  Analysts polled by Reuters expect to see the February total come in near 140 million bushels.  If achieved, that number would be off from January’s 150.5 million bushels and lower than the February 2015 tally of 147 million.  Stiffer competition from South America is cited as reason for lower crush expectations.           
   # Severe thunderstorms could develop over the northern half of Illinois on Tuesday.  Parts of the state will see temperatures reach 70 degrees.                 
   # The Federal Reserve governors meet this week to discuss monetary policy.  An interest rate increase is not expected to follow this meeting and economists are evenly split on whether or not they think rates will rise after the June meeting.       

***** April live cattle finish $0.50 lower as the deferred months gain moderately; feeder futures down $0.15 to $0.60; hogs lose $0.05 to $1.05. ***** 

   # Cattle futures traded both sides of unchanged at the start of the week.  Higher cash deals from last week combined with a better early-week wholesale trade to support the market, but traders were taking profit near points of technical resistance.    
   # Lower wholesale prices weighed on hog futures to start the week.  Bulls still point to the outlook for supplies to tighten into the summer.  The question is whether or not seasonal expectations are already priced into the board.