AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, March 15, 2016
***** Corn down 2 to 2 1/2 cents at the break; soybeans off a nickel; Chicago wheat lower by 2 to 2 1/2. ***** 

   # Grains trade lower as a result of broad weakness in the commodity market.  Oil leads the space lower.  
   # Oil is down on some follow-through selling from yesterday, when the Iranians announced their intention to up output targets.  Other commodities, like copper, are down as a result of this morning’s risk-off approach to emerging market trades.          
   # Illinoisans will fight potentially-severe thunderstorms as they show up to the polls for Super Tuesday.  The Delta states should start to dry out over the next 10 days, but that same dry forecast will cause some worry for winter wheat growers in the Southern Plains.              
   # Sunday’s run of the National Weather Service models leans cooler during the 6-10 day range.  The Delta states should start to dry out over the next week before higher chances of precipitation return at the latter end of the 8-14 outlook.  
   # NOPA crush numbers will be reported mid-morning.  Traders look for February soy crush to total 140 million bushels.  There are many who believe that the USDA crush target is still too high and will have to come down because of U.S. business lost to South America.             
   # May corn opened a quarter-cent gap on Monday and so far trades within the previous session’s range.  The contract also trades above its 50-day moving average for the first time in March.  May soybean futures enjoy some technical momentum after having closed higher for nine straight sessions.  Next up for resistance is $9.02 1/2.           
   # Data showed that Malaysian palm oil exports were down again, this time by about one percent through the first half of the month.  Dry weather related to El Nino has curbed production, but demand has been notably lagging. 
   # U.S. stock futures pointed to a lower open for the major indexes.  International shares were broadly weaker on Tuesday as traders priced in a decision from the Bank of Japan to leave their main lending rate unchanged.  The U.S. Fed starts meeting today and is not expected to raise rates this go around.            

***** Cattle fundamentals still lean friendly, but futures face technical resistance; hogs look to keep technical support. *****

   # Strong gains were tallied on yesterday afternoon’s cutout report, $3.42 for choice beef and $2.37 for select.  The strength has traders optimistic over cash market potential following improved prices last week.       
   # Cash and wholesale prices had given in a little at the end of last week to help weigh on hog futures, but fewer slaughters this week and the maintenance of bullish summer supply and demand expectations lend the board support.