AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, March 21, 2016
***** Corn up 2 1/2 cents on the session; soybeans close higher by 4 to 4 1/2; Chicago wheat gains 3 1/4 to 3 1/2. *****

   # Grains will trade a short week due to the Good Friday holiday.  All government reports will still be released on the usual schedule.  
   # Corn shipments were up on the week to 39.9 million bushels.  Cumulative exports still run about 8.2 percent behind last year.  Soybean inspections are leveling off and came in at 21.1 million bushels this week.  The wheat tally was up over last week at 17.2 million.     
   # To some surprise, Friday’s CFTC report showed funds making a big shift and turning net-long on soybeans.  Money managers did not just cover shorts; they also added some fresh longs to the mix.  Rising soybean open interest helps to confirm the presence of new buyer interest.               
   # It was a bullish outside day on the charts for corn futures.  The nearby May contract dipped below its 50-day moving average only to find support from the 10-day.  Next up for resistance is last week’s high at $3.72. Soybeans are working to establish support from $9 but the recent move up has futures approaching overbought territory.   
   # Wheat futures finished higher but settled far short of highs made early in the session.  A forecast for rain in the Southern Plains pressured prices last week, but cold temperatures over the weekend may have caused some damage to region’s winter crop.               
   # Traders were monitoring a situation at a port in Brazil where workers planned on striking.  The news comes as wait time for ships booked with agricultural exports grows.             
   # A cold spell will descend upon much of the U.S. this week, potentially dumping snow on parts of the Central Plains and northern Midwest. A freeze event may also occur in the Delta states.   
   # Buyers were approaching the U.S. stock market with some caution to start the week.  The major indexes have erased most or all of losses incurred at the beginning of the calendar year as traders have been somewhat assuaged by dovish global central banks.     

***** Live cattle futures finish lower by $0.80 to $1.47 as feeders drop $3.35 to $4.22; hogs lose $1.70 to $2.10. *****

   # Cash cattle markets improved late last week but not by as much as had been anticipated, causing futures to be on the defensive today.  Higher-than-expected Cattle on Feed numbers also leaned negative for prices at the start of the week.             
   # Hog futures faced pressure from the start as traders priced in pessimism over near-term cash market potential.  Selling intensified as the April futures contract lost technical support from its 20-day moving average.