AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, March 21, 2016
*****Good Morning!*****

   # Wheat was alone in featuring gains overnight as futures rebounded from a rough time last week.  The commodity sector as a whole is mixed to start the week with oil down slightly and metals mostly higher.   
   # Traders are showing only muted reaction to a surprising CFTC report that showed fund traders turning net-long on soybeans during the last reporting week.  The corn position remains bearish, with managed money net-short by just under 200,000 contracts.   Funds are net-short wheat by about 75,000 contracts.  
   # The market will continue to trade acres expectations this week.  Last week featured a couple releases of industry estimates, including Informa's call for corn acres to gain 1.5 million on last year to 89.5 million and soybean area to jump to 84 million acres.  The major news agencies have polled industry analysts for Prospective Plantings report estimates and should report results this week.           
   # Weekly export inspections will be traded today.  Numbers have been solid in the recent few weeks, but there remains concern that the corn exports are not up to pace with the USDA's current target.  Most traders expected to see the USDA cut that target when the suppy and demand tables were updated on March 9th, but it was unchanged at 1.65 billion bushels.       
   # The updated outlook from the National Weather Service leans cooler and wetter over the next 6-10 days.   Temperatures in the Midwest should cool to the low-50's as the week progresses with the highest chances for rain coming Wednesday and Thursday.       
   # Dollar index futures are fractionally changed this morning.  The currency sold off last week when the Federal Reserve governors agreed on a more dovish forecast for interest rates.  
   # Traders are watching the Brazilian real more closely lately as efforts are underway to impeach the country's president.  The currency was higher as buyers reasoned that a government shake up would bode well for the economy.  

***** Cattle futures look to open weaker as hogs start the week mixed. *****

   # Cattle futures face some pressure to start the new week after last week's cash markets developed at price levels that were lower than anticipated.  The Cattle on Feed report leaned a little bearish with placements up to 110 percent of the year-ago level.  
   # Momentum for the nearby hog futures contract continues to level off while the summer months press further on.  Tuesday's Cold Storage report should give the trade guidance for the near-term.