AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, March 23, 2016
***** Corn down 3 cents; soybeans down 6 3/4; Chicago wheat down 3. ​*****

   # Grains trade lower overnight as a rebounding dollar takes some wind out of the sail for most commodities.  
   # News remains rather limited for the grains and therefore trading volumes light as markets approach Friday’s holiday.  
   # The weekly report from the American Petroleum Institute estimated an 8.8 million barrel build in crude stocks.  Inventories may continue to build in the near-term, but U.S. production is on its way lower.  Traders are also placing bets on the possibility of OPEC producers agreeing to production freezes when they meet next month.     
   # News buyers are entering the market to take advantage of the recent upside momentum for soy.  Open interest for soybeans increased by nearly 21,000 contracts yesterday.  Open interest for corn has been declining recently in a manner that reflects funds covering shorts but failing to replace them with bullish bets.    
   # Asian palm oil prices leveled off slightly on Wednesday after a strong recent run to the upside.  Drought-related production cuts support the market but some pessimism about the prospects for demand in an economically-struggling Asia has dampened the enthusiasm.     
   # Chances for snow increase for the Midwest tonight and tomorrow.  The forecast calls for more snow West and more rain East.  No major rainfall totals are expected to accumulate in the dry soils of the Southern Plains in the next 6-10 days.                   
   # Soybean prices were stronger on China’s Dalian Exchange Wednesday while corn contracts were weaker.  The corn and wheat markets continue to face pressure from the country’s efforts to shrink state-owned stockpiles.    
   # Economic data is mostly limited to the New Home Sales report today.  Traders expect to see sales rise, but they have become wary after Monday’s Existing Home Sales report was disappointing.  Durable Goods and Initial Jobless Claims reports are due out tomorrow and a 4th Quarter GDP reading will be issued Friday.   

***** Livestock futures look to open firmer but face pressure from negative outside market influences. ***** 

   # Both cattle and hog futures should benefit from a friendly Cold Storage report.  Pork stocks increased slightly in February, but did so by much less than in previous years.  Traders still have a more-important Hogs and Pigs report to see on Friday.  Beef stocks actually declined from January to February.  Cattle futures will still find some pushback after last week’s Placements count indicated more beef to come down the road.