AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Tuesday, March 29, 2016
***** Corn futures up 2 to 2 1/2 cents; soybeans up 6 1/2 to 7; Chicago wheat up 5 to 5 3/4. ***** 

   # The speculators watched their computers actively trade the charts today.  Bulls won out as they were bring corn and soybean futures to new highs for the month.  May corn settled above its 100-day moving average for the first time since October.  Nearby soybeans closed just short of a $9.17 1/2 high from December 17th.  
   # Australian meteorologists gave an update on El Nino today.  They are still tracking an El Nino that is on its way out and could fully dissipate by the end of July.  A La Nina event is currently given equal chance against a neutral fall/winter.    
   # The short-run forecast includes cooler, drier weather that serves as a worry for wheat growers, but it could allow Midwest planting efforts to start in earnest soon.   
   # China has popped up again in the market headlines.  Policymakers there look to be shifting their stance on the state’s grain stockpiling programs.  Price supports for the corn market could be lowered or abandoned all together.  Such a move would serve to add some additional congestion in the world export market. 
   # Brazil’s real currency is choppy this week as the country’s president becomes one step closer to impeachment.  The real had been strengthening early this year on the idea that a new administration could help reverse current economic troubles. The real’s slide against the dollar over the previous four years has been a negative for U.S. grain prices as it has caused an unfavorable shift in trade terms for U.S. exports.     
   # The dollar turned lower at midday to help reinforce grain momentum established earlier in the session. Fed Chairwoman Yellen indicated in a speech that she would lean toward caution with future interest rate hikes.
   # U.S. stock indexes were higher following Yellen’s comments, led by technology shares.  Gains were limited in the energy sector as a result of weaker oil prices.  Bank stocks slumped on the idea that low interest rates for longer would mean slimmer profits.    

***** Live cattle end fractionally changed as feeders finish fractionally lower; hogs close higher by $0.32 to $0.57. ***** 

   # Live cattle futures finished steady after trading both sides of unchanged.  A higher start to the week for the beef market lends support, but buyers are being cautious until the cash market better develops.  There is some thought that a peak has been seen for cash prices in the near-term.     
   # Hog futures enjoyed some follow-through buying after Friday’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report reinforced expectations for tighter summer supplies.  The friendly summer-demand outlook is still being priced into the spreads.  Wholesale prices inched higher into the midday report.