AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Tuesday, March 29, 2016
***** Corn down 1 1/2 at the break; soybeans fractionally changed; Chicago wheat up 1 to 2.​ *****

   # It’s a mostly quiet overnight trade for the grains with the computers battling it out for technical position.  Traders are likely to be somewhat cautious in their approach to the market ahead of Thursday’s Stocks and Prospective Plantings reports.      
   # Oil futures are down more than two percent overnight.  There is no fresh news to serve as a catalyst for the downside and most traders are viewing recent weakness as a pullback rather than a resumption of the old downtrend.  
   # Corn bulls are on edge over news that Chinese policymakers are ready to act more aggressively to draw down state-owned grain inventories by scrapping price floors. The move would likely limit demand for U.S. grain products and would cause some additional crowding in the corn export market.  
   # Wheat futures are benefitting from some short-covering to start the week.  Fund traders surprised by adding to their bearish wheat bet during the last CFTC reporting week.  Another dry weekend and a forecast devoid of any significant precipitation potential had traders ready to buy on Monday.
   # Condition ratings for the winter wheat crop still run pretty good for the Southern Plains states.  Kansas wheat is 56 percent good or excellent and Oklahoma wheat has 63 percent of the crop with one of those designations.  National ratings should begin to be released next week.           
   # Weekly planting progress reports will start up again in the first or second week of April.  We know from some individual state agencies that Texas is on a normal pace while growers in the Delta are far behind after a wet start to spring.   
   # More planting delays could be in store for the Delta this week as chances for rain increase tonight and tomorrow for the region.  While the Delta states suffer through a wet couple of days, the Midwest may have to deal with a brief cold snap.  Temperatures could drop into the low 20’s before returning toward normal this weekend.        
   # U.S. stock futures point to a lower open for the major indexes as the bulls lack fresh motivation.  Next up for newsworthy items will be a speech from Fed Chairwoman Yellen later today. 

***** April cattle start with a test of technical support from the 50-day moving average; hogs look to start steady to firmer. ​*****

   # Cattle futures will find support today if wholesale prices are able to rebound further. Strength in the hog market helps, as traders had reasoned that beef could go no higher if it was to maintain such a premium over pork.      
   # Hogs may find some follow-through from the friendly reaction to Friday’s Hogs and Pigs report.  Summer contracts should continue to perform the best as traders hold on to ideas of tighter supplies in the months ahead.