AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Wednesday, March 30, 2016
***** Corn and wheat down fractionally ahead of the break; soybeans off 1 1/4 to 2. *****

   # The overnight session features light trading volume and tight ranges for corn and wheat.  Soybeans are lower on higher volume.        
   # Outside markets are a supportive influence overnight.  Crude oil futures are rebounding after five-session slide.  U.S. equity index futures are higher in follow up to Tuesday’s strong move.  The dollar index is also down and providing support to the commodity space.    
   # Fund traders have lightened up on their bearish grain ahead of the report.  A net-short position on corn that not long ago reached more than 225,000 contracts is now down to just over 50,000.  The wheat position is down below 100,000 contracts.  Money manager have turned bullish on soybeans and hold a net-long somewhere in the order of 65,000 contracts.      
   # The 8-14 day forecast has Illinois right on the dividing line to where west of the state should run warmer than average and east cooler.  The outlook leans drier earlier and wetter later.  
   # Growers in Brazil are expected to enjoy a dry week.  The soybean harvest is estimated to be somewhere around 65 percent done and just a hair behind an average pace.             
   # The corn market is so far shrugging off the announcement related to China’s step away from grain stockpiling and price support programs.  Traders may view the move as having potentially more long-term market implications.  Plus, the changes have been in the rumor mill for some time so there is the possibility of them having already been priced in.       
   # Guesses are still all over the board as to what to expect out of Thursday’s reports.  First glance will likely be given to the new acres estimates.  Analysts see corn plantings rising by up to 2.5 million acres over last year.  Some look for a marginal drop in soybean area, others a small gain.         
   # The grain market will have weekly ethanol numbers to digest today.  Likewise, energy markets will trade the weekly stocks report due out at 9:30 am. Central.  The economic calendar is blank today.  

***** Live cattle should attempt a rebound at the start; hogs can benefit from technical support and outside market strength. *****

   # Cattle futures are in the process of correcting lower as traders act on their expectations for seasonal weakness.  The board could end up finding support quickly if the wholesale market continues to surprise with strength as it has done early in the week.        
   # Hog futures will hold strength as long as wholesale values can.  The expectations for tighter summer supplies still support the market, but there’s extra time in between Easter and Memorial Day this year that may cause a headwind for prices if demand slows in the meantime.