AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Friday, April 01, 2016
*****Good Morning!*****

   # Corn down and soybeans up on high overnight volume. Some follow-through on the part of corn bears is evident after yesterday's crop report.\
   # Analysts will continue to dissect an acres report that found corn planting intentions well above expectations at 93.6 million acres. The state-by-state breakdown shows sizable increases in area for states like Missouri, where acres will return from prevent plant, and Kansas, where acres will switch from wheat and minor feed grains like sorghum.
   # Corn futures were pulled to new contract lows on yesterday's move. A look at the continuous chart shows an August 2015 low of $3.46 1/2 that could provide technical support. There is little to prop up futures below that mark until the board would approach an October 2014 low of $3.18 1/4.
   # Soybean futures are up overnight but have backed off after clearing key technical resistance and reaching a new three-month high on the move.
   # Fund traders are back to waging a short-selling campaign in the corn market. The large speculators have quickly amassed a net-short that re-approaches 200,000 contracts.
   # The forecast remains dry through the next two week for much of the country. A break from wet weather will be welcomed by growers facing planting delays in the Delta but winter wheat in the Plains could still use a drink. Temperatures should run cooler than normal in Illinois and east, warmer west.
   # Weather will take center stage once traders take at least a session or two more to digest yesterday's report. Planting season in the Midwest will kick off in earnest soon and with it will come the return of weekly Planting Progress reports from the USDA.\
   # Oil futures are down hard this morning as doubt grows over the likelihood that OPEC and other producers will reach an output agreement when they meet later this month. WTI futures are also pressure by some technical selling after contracts lost support from their 100-day moving average this week.
   # Stock index futures are down ahead of the unemployment report. Economists look for payrolls to have grown by 205,000 last month while the unemployment rate should remain unchanged at 4.9 percent.

***** Live cattle look to open steady to slightly firmer as hog futures should hold technical support at the start of the session. *****

   # Cattle futures will enjoy some support from lower a lower corn market, but gains should become limited by a recent bearish turn in the rest of the fundamentals. Wholesale prices are slipping and traders expect that cash prices are headed for a seasonal dip.
   # Lower cash and wholesale prices also weigh on hog futures. The technicals have turned short-term bearish, but the board should find some support as it approaches oversold territory.