AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, April 04, 2016
***** Corn futures settle even on the day; soybeans lower by 4 to 4 3/4 cents; Chicago wheat off 1 to 1 3/4. ***** 

   # Though corn started weaker and soybeans higher, the session closed with corn steady and soybeans lower.  Traders were taking profit in a slightly overbought soybean market while covering shorts on oversold corn.  Chicago wheat struggled to clear technical resistance from the 100-day moving average.  
   # Corn inspections were a robust 1 million metric tons last week.  Cumulative corn shipments are about 84 percent of last year’s total while the USDA looks for the final export target to come in at 88 percent of the previous year.  Weekly soybean shipments were weak at only 205,000 mt versus 575,000 counted this time last year.  
   # Wheat inspections were again very poor at 318,000 metric tons last week.  Abundant global supplies and an uncompetitive U.S. trade market remain a headwind for U.S. wheat prices.  The market is provided some support from the large reduction in acreage planted to the crop this year.   
   # Soybeans were lower despite strength for soyoil futures.  Soyoil futures gained 12 percent in March compared to gains of about 7 percent for soybeans.  Support for the U.S. soy complex comes from Asian palm oil markets that are making new two-year highs. Drought is Asia caused by El Nino is the catalyst.    
   # Rising production estimates for soybeans in South America help to weigh on the U.S. market.  Growers in Brazil and Argentina are enjoying favorable weather this season.  A dry forecast for Brazil this week will help harvest progress while showers in Argentina aid in the development of late crops.  
   # A dry start to the new week should eventually give way to a wetter forecast in the Midwest.  Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks lean cooler and wetter.  Temperatures in central Illinois could drop as low as 25F and lead to the development of snow showers on Friday. 
   # Weak oil has been a bearish influence on the broad commodity space in recent weeks.  Oil prices were down again today on a Saudi prince saying that his country will only freeze output if Iran also agrees to do so.  There is much doubt that Iran will agree to such a freeze when OPEC producers meet later this month.     
   # There are more analysts turning bearish the dollar as central bankers continue to reaffirm their dovish stance on U.S. interest rates.  Data on fund trader positions also shows the large speculators holding a sizable bullish bet on gold, which can serve as a hedge against inflationary pressures that easy money policy can often bring about.  

***** Live cattle settle fractionally higher with feeders also up just barely over unchanged; hog futures drop $0.12 to $0.65.  *****

   # Cattle futures started higher on some technical buying but eased back after the wholesale market displayed weakness.  The choice cut-out was down $1.18 as of the midday report with select lower by $0.88.       
   # Cash hog markets continue to trade with a weaker bias and lean negative for futures.  The curve is finding technical support after the recent slide leaves futures slightly oversold.  April hogs still maintain support from their 100-day moving average.