AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, April 04, 2016
***** Corn down 2 at the break; soybeans up 1 3/4 to 2 3/4; Chicago wheat down 3. *****

   # The grains pick up where they left off with corn and wheat on the defensive and soybeans continuing to gain traction to the upside.  Fund positioning and related technical action will help weather guide the grain trade this week.    
   # Corn will continue to face some pressure from last week’s acres report.  The Prospective Plantings survey tallied intentions for 93.6 million corn acres compared to an average trade guess of 90 million.  Analysts suggest that the number will come down from here; but, it is a high number to come down from.   
   # May corn futures could not clear resistance from Friday’s high overnight but have yet to test the previous session’s low. A key low of $3.46 1/2 is next up for potential support.  There is little to prop up futures below that mark until the board would approach an October 2014 low of $3.18 1/4.
   # Nearby soybean futures notched in a new three-month high this morning and make their way toward a test of resistance from the October 14 high at $9.29 1/4. 
   # Fund traders are about double as short on corn than they are long on soybeans with a net-bearish bet on corn north of 150,000 contracts and net-bullish position on soybeans around 75,000 contracts.   
   # USDA will release their first national winter wheat ratings today.  Ratings will come in above last year, but they are susceptible over the coming weeks to a dry weather forecast.  The government will begin updating us on weekly planting progress by the middle of the month.     
   # Sunday’s runs of the 6-10 and 8-14 day weather outlooks have both models leaning cooler and wetter than average across the Midwest.    
   # Oil futures are staging a slight rebound after finishing lower in 7 of the 8 previous sessions.  The market is facing pressure from traders’ doubts that there will be an agreement bringing about an OPEC production freeze this month.    

***** Live cattle look to open steady to slightly weaker as hog futures start similarly. *****

   # Cattle futures are on the defensive as traders liquidate bullish positions.  Market participants have the expectation that seasonal cash and wholesale weakness will be featured ahead of the grilling season.  April futures lost technical support from their 100-day moving average last week but are very near oversold territory after the recent slide.   
   # Hog traders are going to be cautious on futures buying before seeing where the cash and wholesale markets will start the week.  Nearby futures are heading lower for an important test of technical support from the 100-day moving average.