AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Tuesday, April 05, 2016
***** Corn futures up 2 to 2 1/4 on the session; soybeans down 8 3/4; Chicago wheat fractionally lower. *****

   # Corn finished with small gains while soybeans and wheat fell back.  Some unwinding of corn/soy spreads was evident as well as general short-covering for corn and profit-taking on beans.    
   # While a small bit of corn/soy spreads were being unwound, the soy complex itself featured some unwinding of long oil/short meal spreads.  While soymeal futures are flat since the start of 2016, soyoil has jumped nearly 12 percent.
   # Some soyoil enthusiasm was deflated today after palm oil markets finished lower on demand concerns.  The pace of edible oil exports could slow in the near-term and potentially offset the bullish influence of lower production/stocks.
   # The weekly export inspections report helped pressure soybeans at the start of the week.  Bulls have been counting on the pace of exports being enough to outrun the USDA’s current target and offset potential cuts to the crushings goal.      
   # Weather is getting more play on a daily basis now that last week’s crop reports are out of the way and planting season has arrived.  Temperatures are warm in the West, cold in the East.  Frost could become an issue for the Midwest late this week.  The two-week outlook is wet for most of the country.  
   # Drought is spreading further outward from the driest pockets of ground in southwestern Kansas.  More than half of Missouri is now covered with the Drought Monitor’s ‘Abnormally Dry’ designation.  Some are counting on El Nino breaking up in a way that provides a wet spring for the country.     
   # Worries about the health of the global economy are popping up again in a way that could spell trouble for the U.S. stock market.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average maintains a gain of about 1.25 percent year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 0.25 percent over the same period.
   # The market will take guidance from Fed minutes to be released tomorrow.  Traders expect the central bank comments to reflect a dovish stance on interest rates.        

***** Live cattle settle $2.52 to $2.92 lower as May feeders drop the limit; hogs fractionally weaker in the front of the curve, firmer in the back. *****

   # The bears took advantage of weak technical parameters and sent live cattle futures down to lock-limit levels at one point during the session.  Fundamental guidance was limited on the day, with wholesale prices steady to firmer and the cash market undeveloped as of yet.         
   # Negative influence from outside markets weighed on nearby hog futures but the summer contracts held up well.  Cash prices look to have bottomed out for the time being.  Pork prices were mostly higher on the midday cutout report.