AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Wednesday, April 06, 2016
***** Corn futures up 1/2 to 1 1/4; soybeans up 3 1/4; Chicago wheat down 11. *****

   # Corn and soybeans shrugged off a sharply lower wheat market and manged gains for the day. Corn continued to benefit from small rounds of short-covering by the funds.  Soybeans found technical support from their 20-day moving average.  Outside markets leaned supportive with oil and equities up.  
   # Losses for wheat futures were significant after yesterday’s Crop Progress report called the winter crop a better-than-expected 59 percent good or excellent.
   # Dry weather has been a friendly influence for wheat prices, but the latest runs of the forecast have higher chances for rain creeping into Plains at the beginning of next week.  
   # Technical action was also weak for wheat today.  May Chicago futures slipped under their 20- and 50-day moving averages.  The March 31 low at $4.55 1/4 is a potential support level.  The contract low is $4.42 1/4. 
   # Margins have improved lately, but ethanol production declined about 1.6 percent this week.  Stocks were down a surprising 3.5 percent.  Corn grind was still robust at 102.5 million bushels relative to the 97.2 million now needed per week to meet the USDA’s current 5.225 billion bushel goal.
   # Export sales will be reported tomorrow morning.  Analysts look for new corn bookings to come in near 35 million bushels, with soybean and wheat sales both around 10 million.  Export sales were strong for corn last week, poor for wheat and beans.  
   # Analysts at Informa upped their Brazilian corn production estimate up to 83.7 million metric tons versus USDA at 84 mmt.  Other industry estimates are as high as 87 mmt. 
   # The Fed minutes were sufficiently dovish relative to expectations.  Central Bank officials have clear worries about sluggish U.S. and global economic growth and low inflation.  Chances for an April interest rate hike should now be perceived by traders as virtually zero.        

***** Live cattle end higher by $0.45 to $1.40; feeders steady to $0.55 higher; hogs up $0.12 to $0.97. *****

   # Cattle futures settled higher on a boost from technical buying.  Boxed beef prices were little changed on the midday report.  Some cash sales have been booked at levels mostly steady with last week.         
   # Buyers took hog futures higher from technical support at the 100-day moving average.  The spreads remain active with the summer months gaining on the nearby.  Wholesale prices were a touch firmer and helped ease some of the recent pressure on cash markets.