AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Friday, April 08, 2016
***** Corn futures up a penny; soybeans rally 11 1/4 to 12 1/4; Chicago wheat higher by 1 3/4 to 3 1/4.  ***** 

   # Estimates for the April 12 WASDE report are circulating.  The average trade guess for corn carryout is 1.845 billion bushels versus the USDA March estimate of 1.837.  Analysts look for soybean ending stocks at 454 million versus a USDA March of 450.  Wheat should come in near 977 versus 966.
   # The ethanol usage estimate could be a bright spot on next week’s crop report.  Corn grind has been high along with a strong ethanol production pace.  Fuel stocks have declined in recent weeks as consumption has risen.  
   # Technical buying helped bounce soybeans higher.  May futures found support from their 20-day moving average.  The contract will now face resistance from Monday’s high at $9.22 1/4. 
   # Soybeans rallied despite moderate weakness in the soyoil market.  It was evident that traders were doing some light unwinding of long-oil/short-meal spreads.  An important report on Malaysian palm oil supply and demand will give guidance to the market on Monday.
   # A sale of 120,000 metric tons of corn for 2015/16 delivery flashed across the USDA’s daily export reporting system.  The sale follows up a 145,000 ton sale to Japan announced Thursday.  U.S. exporters need to average a little more than 450,000 tons per week to meet the USDA’s current 1.65 billion bushel goal for this marketing year.      
   # Kansas Wheat, an joint organization of the Kansas Wheat Commission and Kansas Association of Wheat Growers, reported that “The Kansas wheat crop is currently facing three major hurdles: development being almost three weeks ahead of normal stages, drought conditions, and stripe rust and increasing disease pressure.”
   # Chatter about La Nina is growing louder.  Some meteorologists are upping the chances of a La Nina occurrence now that they see El Nino dissipating more quickly than anticipated.  La Nina is often associated with hot, dry growing seasons in North America.  
   # Traders are back to thinking an OPEC oil production freeze is likely.  The cartel will meet to discuss matters of the oil market on April 17th.  Today’s strong oil rally puts WTI futures back above the 100-day moving average.  

***** Live cattle up $1.05 to $1.95; feeders higher by $1.47 to $1.95; hogs down $0.30 to up $0.80. ***** 

   # Cash cattle sales were sticking near $133 live, which was better than expectations formed earlier in the week.  Further weakness in the wholesale trade doesn’t bode well for the market, though.     
   # More weakness for the cash and wholesale markets meant more pressure on nearby hog futures.  The summer contracts fare better after bouncing from technical support earlier in the week.