AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Monday, April 11, 2016
***** Corn futures drop 5 1/2 cents; soybeans up 10 to 11 3/4; Chicago wheat down 10 1/4 to 13.  *****

   # Traders priced in an updated set of weather forecasts that weighed most heavily on wheat and corn.  New speculative money is suspected to have entered the mix on the buy side of soybeans.  
   # The latest runs of the weather models have the Midwest leaning dry in a way that might provide a good start to the planting season while the forecasts are a wetter in the Plains and could give the winter wheat crop a much-needed drink by as soon as Friday.  
   # Soybean futures rallied through resistance from last week’s highs and made new 6-month highs in the process.  May corn gave up technical support from its 10-day moving average but maintains some room ahead of the April 1st low at $3.47 1/4. Nearby Chicago wheat futures settled under the psychologically-important $4.50 level.  
   # It was meal and not oil that led the soy complex higher for a change today.  Fund traders did some slight unwinding of sizable long-oil/short-meal spread that they have held over the past few months.  The edible oil market faced some general pressure from a higher palm production estimate that came out this morning.
   # This afternoon’s Crop Progress report included a first estimate for national corn planting progress.  The estimate was four percent planted versus one percent a year ago and four percent for the five-year average.  Missouri and Kansas are notably ahead of pace.
   # Winter wheat conditions lost some ground this week falling from 59 percent good or excellent to 56 percent the same.  Traders had guessed that the number would remain unchanged at 59.  
   # Export inspections were strong for corn again this week at 44 million bushels versus 34 million last year.  Shipments have caught up to pace with the USDA target, but traders still see that target as threatened with a cut, potentially on Tuesday’s WASDE report.  Soybean inspections were down slightly on the week and something of a disappointment relative to expectations. 
   # U.S. stocks erased early gains and turned lower into the closing bell.  Traders have some worry about corporate profits in the 1st quarter.  Another corporate earnings season kicks off with aluminum-producer Alcoa reporting this afternoon.            

***** Live cattle finish lower by $0.30 to $0.80 as feeders drop $0.35 to $1.22. ***** 

   # Cattle futures faced some pushback from technical selling at the start of the week.  April live futures were turned away from their 50-day moving average.  Gains in the wholesale market should serve to provide support for the board.
   # It was also technical resistance that kept a lid on hog futures today.  Market sentiment will improve if pork prices continue to hold gains.