AgriVisor Morning MarketWatch

Monday, April 11, 2016
***** Corn down 3 cents; soybeans up 3; Chicago wheat down 5 to 6. *****

   # Grains are mixed on high volume as traders digest new sets of weather reports.  Some positioning ahead of the next crop report will be featured today.  Outside markets are mixed and of little influence on the ags so far.   
   # Tuesday is report day.  April’s WASDE should include only minor changes to corn and soybean carryout estimates for 2015/16.  The March 31 Stocks report provides reason to believe an addition to the Feed and Residual category could flow through to a higher ending stocks estimate for wheat.  
   # The soy complex has so far shrugged off a report that sent Malaysian palm oil prices lower.  A recovery for palm production levels is expected to follow El Nino’s exit, which many meteorologists see occurring sooner than had been earlier anticipated.
   # A better shot for rain in the Southern Plains this week weighs on the wheat market overnight.  Cold temperatures that may bring frost or freeze chances could be a threat to the winter crop.  Winter wheat condition ratings will be updated on this afternoon’s Crop Progress report.
   # An estimate for corn planting progress may be included on today’s Crop Progress report.  The national number should be behind average after delays caused by wet weather in the Delta states.   
   # The two-week forecast is warmer and drier than normal for most of the Midwest.  Improved chances for clear skies place some pressure on the corn market as traders bet on a good start to planting season in the region.       
   # Market participants have an eye on dry weather that is a threat to the second corn crop in Brazil and wet weather that is a disruption to harvest in Argentina.
   # The Brazilian real trades higher against the dollar this morning in follow-up of a strong Friday.  Momentum is gaining in efforts to impeach Brazil’s president, a move that would be expected to benefit confidence in the struggling economy.      
   # Oil futures are backing off just a touch after a strong rally on Friday and ahead of an important OPEC meeting this Sunday.  Traders are placing bets on the ability of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to be able to convince others like Russia and Iran to freeze production.  

***** Cattle futures look to start steady to firmer with a test of technical resistance at the open; hogs should continue to trade choppily with spreading active. *****

   # Traders expect buyer interest and slaughter activity to pick up after a slow week last week.  Packers should start to make purchases with warmer weather in mind.      
   # Hogs have been undergoing a seasonal slump ahead of what is still expected to be a strong summer market.  Analysts look for improving pork exports to help clear some of the large inventories before domestic demand picks up in the next several weeks.