AgriVisor Afternoon MarketWatch

Wednesday, April 13, 2016
***** Big gains for the grains again on Wednesday **​***

   # Bullish sentiment from report day spilled over into today’s session.  Gains through this far in the week stand at 11 1/4 cents for corn, 39 for soybeans, just a penny for Chicago wheat.
   # May corn futures climbed over their 100-day moving average on the way to a new one-month high.  Nearby soybeans settled above psychologically-important resistance from $9.50 while closing a gap on the charts.  The technical trend for wheat remains bearish as Chicago futures face resistance from their major moving averages.
   # Fund traders entered this week still holding a large net-short on corn, but they pared the bearish bet down today by covering a substantial portion.  Fresh longs were added to the soybean net-long.  Aside from the managed money crowd, index funds have also been big buyers of the grains in recent sessions.
   # Buyers shrugged off a disappointing ethanol report.  Ethanol production was down almost four percent on the week.  Corn grind was 98.4 million bushels, which is about exactly in line with the pace needed to meet the USDA’s 5.25 million bushel target.
   # Weekly export sales are due out tomorrow, but they may not attract the same attention this week as they usually do.  Corn sales are expected to be up on the week and near 40 million bushels.  New soybean bookings should be low at around 7 million.  Wheat could very well face more cancellations.  
   # There are a mix of weather-related influences to help guide the market.  Clear skies in the Midwest this week/weekend look to provide an open window for the start of planting season.  Rain is forecasted in the Southern Plains late this weekend and could help out a thirsty winter wheat crop.  Market participants are also keeping an eye on dry weather in Brazil and wet weather in Argentina.
   # Outside markets are also of mixed influence on the grains.  Strong equity markets help encourage a risk-on attitude for most major financial markets.  A small pullback for the oil market went largely unnoticed by grain traders today.  A strong dollar index rally did not get in the way of the rally any either.          

***** Live cattle down $0.32 to $1.35 as feeders drop $0.47 to $1.20; hog futures settle lower by $0.92 to $1.10. ***** 

   # Another round of solid gains for the wholesale market failed to provide much support for cattle futures.  Both choice and select cuts were up about $3 on the noon cutout report.  Buyers were not enthusiastic with live futures up against their 100-day moving average.         
   # It was a similar storyline for hogs as futures dropped despite pork prices moving higher.  Technical sellers became active as June futures slipped to new lows for the month and gave up support from their 100-day moving average.